The US expects “cautiously optimistic” developments in the new round of talks between Russia and Ukraine, which begins on November 10 in Abu Dhabi. The meetings will last two days and will be mediated by US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. This will be the first discussion involving American mediators since the talks were suspended in February.
“There is a chance for significant progress toward a deal and for overcoming differences,” a US official told Axios. According to him, bringing Russia and Ukraine back to the negotiating table was difficult, but Washington is seeing promising signals from both sides. At the same time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the process still has a long way to go.
Security and territories at the center of talks
The talks will proceed along two main tracks. The military working group, led by the commander of the US European Command, General Alexus Grynkewich, will discuss monitoring a possible ceasefire and future security arrangements.
The political group will deal with the most difficult issue – the territories. Russia insists on gaining control over the entire Donbas, while Ukraine wants the territorial issue to be resolved on the basis of the current front line. According to US officials, Moscow and Kyiv have shown some flexibility in recent weeks, but an agreement will not be possible without prior security guarantees.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejects demands for a unilateral surrender of territories and insists on guarantees that would deter a new Russian attack. Kyiv is also seeking an agreement to reduce tensions in the Black Sea, the possibility of exporting grain, an end to strikes on Ukrainian power plants and Russian oil refineries, as well as new exchanges of prisoners of war.
Europe invited, but Russia objects
Witkoff and Kushner have invited representatives of NATO, the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy to separate meetings. Washington wants Europe to participate in future security arrangements and in a possible postwar settlement.
Moscow, however, insists that the main format remain trilateral – between Russia, Ukraine and the US. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said European countries could be included at a later stage, but not in the current core talks. Ukrainian representatives are planning separate coordination with European envoys in Abu Dhabi.
The talks are beginning against the backdrop of continued fighting. Russia has intensified strikes on Ukraine’s energy system ahead of winter, while Ukraine has attacked Russian oil-refining facilities. If the meetings develop positively, the US envoys may visit Moscow and Kyiv to hold personal talks with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian side is also insisting on preparations for a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, which could be held on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Miami in December.
Sources: axios.com, apnews.com