Russia’s naval presence in the Baltic Sea may have reached the limits of Moscow’s peacetime ability to project power in the region. This was stated by Finnish Navy Commander Rear Admiral Tuomas Tiilikainen in an interview with Sky News.
“The situation at sea is tense but stable,” Tiilikainen said. According to him, there is currently no need for further escalation, but rather for measures to reduce tensions.
NATO Reports a Decline in Russian Patrols
Tiilikainen pointed to two possible explanations for the current situation. Russia may not see an immediate need to increase its presence and readiness in the Baltic Sea, but it is also possible that it has reached the limits of its peacetime capabilities.
A NATO official, cited by Sky News, said that there are usually at least three alliance ships in the Baltic Sea for every Russian vessel. At present, the ratio is estimated at around four to one.
According to the same official, Russian patrols have declined over the past six months due to problems with the maintenance and readiness of ageing warships. Their prolonged participation in operations has placed additional strain on the vessels and crews.
Patrols Increased After Damage to Cables
NATO launched the Baltic Sentry maritime mission in January 2025 following a series of suspected acts of sabotage against underwater telecommunications cables and power cables. The operation involves ships, aircraft and other surveillance assets.
The mission also focuses on vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet. In 2026, at least 13 stops and inspections of such vessels were carried out in Europe.
US Marines were deployed for several weeks to the Finnish island of Utö, where they conducted intelligence missions as part of the Baltic Sentry presence.
The Finnish Navy has not registered any new attacks against the country’s underwater infrastructure since the incident in December 2025. On 5 November 2026, a court in Helsinki sentenced the captain and a crew member of the Fitburg cargo ship for aggravated sabotage over damage to two telecommunications cables.
According to Finland, the Risk Remains Linked to Tankers
Tiilikainen said that the greatest immediate danger in the Baltic Sea comes from old tankers and inexperienced crews operating in the shadow fleet. In his view, an incident involving a vessel running aground could trigger an environmental disaster.
The Finnish commander added that increased surveillance and NATO’s readiness have probably had a deterrent effect. He stressed, however, that traffic involving civilian tankers and cargo ships linked to the shadow fleet remains steady.
Sources: news.sky.com, apnews.com