The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) believes that the initiative on the front in Ukraine is currently in the hands of the Russian occupiers.
Expert Ben Barry from the IISS told the American publication CNBC that a stalemate on the front in 2024 should be “the best scenario that Kiev can hope for”.
The worst is that the Russian army gains more speed, breaks through the defense of the ZSU and the Ukrainian front collapses. The next months will be critical for the Ukrainian forces.
Russia recently captured Avdeyevka and several nearby villages, and there remains uncertainty in Kiev about whether the US will continue to support the country financially and militarily. The institute questions the Ukrainian claims that “the war will stop in 2024” with victory over the Russians. What is happening on the front right now suggests that this is not a realistic scenario.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already warned that Russia plans to launch a new large-scale offensive in early summer, making shortages of ammunition and weapons in Kiev critical. Russia is likely to mount a series of major attacks in the spring and summer that are designed to cause many Ukrainian casualties, push defenses west and extend Russian control over the occupied territories.
Russia, which has already mobilized several hundred thousand people, can sustain an offensive campaign. In addition, the Russian economy was fully operational for the needs of the army at the behest of Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine still hopes that the US Congress will soon approve the release of $60 billion in military aid. The arrival of the first Western F-16 fighter jets is also expected. The new commander-in-chief of the ZSU, Oleksandr Sirski, is focused on strengthening the defense without risking the troops trying to regain territory. In the longer term, Ukraine is also dependent on the presidential elections in the USA.