Certainly in the summer of this year, Russia will launch a large-scale offensive on the front. Vladimir Putin will do everything possible to force a breakthrough, regardless of the cost, writes focus.de.
After the muddy period known as rasputitsa, which gave the Ukrainians a breather, the Russians are preparing for another attack. Putin will do everything possible to force a breakthrough with his vast military resources.
If Moscow manages to make major breakthroughs on the fronts, then it will be difficult to keep a viable Ukraine. And if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November, the USA will leave Ukraine without aid.
However, if Ukraine manages to hold the fronts in 2024 and possibly Joe Biden wins in the US, then the war will continue, but there may be some prospect of some sort of ceasefire or at least a break being reached in 2025.
Europe will live with Cold War 2.0, which will likely be much hotter than the one that ended in the 1990s. Because Kiev will not accept the occupation of large parts of its country and will continue to act covertly against the Russian occupiers in the country, while Putin will do everything to destabilize Ukraine and bring it to an unviable state. Relapse is almost guaranteed.
On the front line, it is uncertain what will happen, but there are some clear trends: Western sanctions have so far been largely ineffective. Moscow again has the initiative on the front. The Russian army has been keeping heavy pressure on the Ukrainian defenders for months. After the fall of Avdeevka, the Ukrainians are currently clinging to the terrain west of it, while a new defensive line deeper inland is being frantically built.
The Russian army suffers much higher losses than the Ukrainian one, but it can afford it. According to Western estimates, Russia is recruiting up to 30,000 new soldiers every month, and factories are constantly churning out new military materials 24/7. There are currently at least 500,000 Russian troops stationed in Ukraine, compared to an estimated 170,000 at the start of the war.
Against this background, the West seems unable to do what is necessary. The USA, the “arsenal of democracy”, the world superpower, and, by the way, the guarantor of Ukraine (Budapest Memorandum), is unable to put aside internal political disputes for a few months in order to supply Kiev with the necessary weapons.