Obviously, NATO should not run away every time Russia threatens to use nuclear weapon. But Western leaders must know the risks and act wisely. There are alternative paths to peace – ways that do not rely solely on military means and in which negotiations can play an important role in Western strategy. The other options are too dangerous.
This opinion was expressed to The Guardian by Christopher S. Chivis, senior associate at the Carnegie think tank. and former US intelligence officer.
The fact that Russia has not yet used nuclear weapons gives no assurance that it will not in the future. It is not difficult to imagine circumstances in which the use of nuclear weapons might seem like a rational choice from the Kremlin's point of view. Putin himself may not even know for sure what his red lines are until he believes they have been crossed on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Just because Putin's threats are irresponsible doesn't mean the West can blithely ignore them.
Unfortunately, Putin is a leader with an excellent track record of breaking norms and delivering surprises. In 2014, his operation to seize and then annex Crimea shocked the world. In 2015, Russia launched a surprise military intervention in Syria. The following year, Putin led an unprecedented operation to influence the US presidential election. He did the same in Europe in 2017. Then he tried to kill an enemy by poisoning him on British soil, attacked the US with cyber weapons and finally carried out a full-scale invasion of a neighboring country – Ukraine. Who can know with reasonable certainty when a reckless autocrat like this, surrounded by silent letters, might decide the time is right to teach the West a lesson with a tactical nuclear strike?
The situation is very serious because neither Ukraine, nor NATO, nor anyone outside Putin's inner circle knows what his red lines are for using nuclear weapons.
The problem is that the more NATO gets involved in Ukraine, the more Russia is sure to brandish its nuclear weapons, and the greater the chances that it will actually use them.
Tactical nuclear weapons are less destructive than the larger strategic weapons that usually come to mind when one imagines thermonuclear war. But if Russia were to use any nuclear weapon, even with a fraction of the destructive power of a strategic warhead, it would obliterate a swath of Ukrainian land, rendering it uninhabitable for decades. If Russia launches a nuclear weapon, it will unleash Armageddon.