At the beginning of the full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the Russian army hoped for a blitzkrieg – capturing Kiev in three days and overthrowing the Ukrainian political leadership. However, Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command have faced the reality that this is not possible.
Now Moscow is changing its tactics and formulating a new theory of what a Russian victory in the war would look like – it suggests that Russian occupation forces can continue their gradual slow advance indefinitely, preventing the Ukrainians from conducting successful counteroffensive operations.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian military commanders now prefer sequential offensive operations that can achieve something incrementally, rather than launching a large-scale offensive that aims to achieve significant operational gains through rapid maneuvers.
Putin and the Russian military command seem to recognize the reality that Russian forces must pursue isolated targets for many months, if not years. ISW believes that in order to stand up to Putin and avoid prolonging the war, Western countries should move quickly to provide Ukraine with the necessary support for counteroffensive operations.
Putin likely hopes that Russia's slow but continued progress in Ukraine will convince the West that Ukrainian victory is unattainable and that concessions to Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty are preferable to Ukrainian defeat. Putin's goal remains the same: the capitulation of Ukraine.