Ukraine could face significant shortages of electricity this winter, which could reach 6 gigawatts (GW), about a third of expected peak demand, due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the expiration of the contract for the transit of Russian gas at the end of the year, according to a report by the International Agency on Energy (IEA), quoted by "Reuters" and News.bg.
Since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's energy system has been repeatedly attacked, leading to regular blackouts in some regions. During the summer, when electricity consumption is usually lower, Ukraine reported a shortfall of more than 2 GW compared to a peak consumption of 12 GW.
In winter, peak demand is expected to increase to 18.5 GW. Despite the restart of nuclear plants and the import of electricity from European countries, the shortfall could reach 6 GW, which is equal to the annual peak consumption of Denmark.
An additional risk is related to the expiration of the gas transit contract with the Russian company "Gazprom" at the end of this year. Ukraine has said it has no intention of continuing, meaning additional gas supplies will have to be secured from other sources in Central and Eastern Europe. Until now, European countries – mainly Slovakia – performed a virtual reverse of Russian gas, de facto allowing Ukraine to retain part of the transited gas for its own needs.
To ensure its energy security in winter, Ukraine will need to carry out repair and construction works to protect key infrastructure and take energy-saving measures, the IEA report states.