Western intelligence officials see Vladimir Putin in an “unusual state of tension”. The Russian president wants to scare the West again before the US presidential elections, perhaps this time in a completely new way, writes RND.
5 scenarios are presented, with which Putin can try to destabilize the Western countries. There is currently an intense debate on these troubling issues in NATO countries - albeit away from the public eye.
Tensions are high in Moscow right now and Putin is restless. China treats Russia condescendingly, as a new raw material colony. India has been secretly supplying ammunition to Kiev through third countries, and Turkey is now insisting more clearly than ever that Crimea be returned to Ukraine.
The biggest shame for Putin at the moment remains Ukraine's invasion of Russia's Kursk region. Initially, Russian troops there were unable to prevent the Ukrainians from wresting control of 1,300 square kilometers from them. In addition, the Russian army failed to comply with Putin's order to quickly take back the land.
Putin is under unprecedented pressure. Therefore, the Western services are expecting something unusual, something disruptive, some kind of October surprise.
For decades, American political scientists have used the term “October surprise” to describe the often surprising turn of events a few weeks before the US presidential election, which is held every four years.
Russian drones over NATO countries: Russian drones have already violated the airspace of Romania and Latvia in September. “Bucharest 9“ are calling for a tougher approach and possible downing of Russian drones, which could increase the risk of confrontation. This could cause disputes within NATO.
Islamist terror: Britain's MI5 intelligence agency suspects Russia is supporting terrorist groups in the Middle East to wreak havoc in the West. “Russian intelligence is working to cause continued chaos on the streets of Britain and Europe,” says MI5 director Ken McCallum.
Escalation of chemical weapons: Russian troops could use chemical weapons such as chlorpicrin in Ukraine, which could instill fear and act as a test for tactical nuclear weapons.
Interference in Western communications: Activities of Russian ships near undersea cables have raised concerns about EU-US internet connections. Disruption of satellite communications can have a significant psychological impact.
Meddling in Moldova and Georgia: In the upcoming elections in Moldova and Georgia, Russia may use disinformation campaigns to support pro-Russian parties and delay democratization in the West.