Save Ukraine, Protect Europe, and Deter Russia!

Donald Trump has promised to quickly end Russia's war against Ukraine, and most analysts suggest that this will require efforts to reach an agreement in which the parties retain most of the territories they control, writes Foreign Affairs, predicting whether Trump will be able to reach a real agreement in Ukraine.

The United States has three main interests in the European struggle: to save Ukraine, protect Europe, and deter Russia. All three goals can be achieved, albeit to a limited extent, but, the article emphasizes, only if Ukraine receives adequate security guarantees and financial support.

The struggle in Ukraine, writes FA, has become a war of attrition, and Kiev's allies have bet that at some point Russian President Vladimir Putin will tire and decide to cut his losses. But instead, he has redoubled his efforts, "betting Russia's future on the other side's will to break first".

Analyzing what an agreement to end the war might look like, FA writes that each side is likely to retain most of the territories under its control. According to the author, Ukraine does not accept this idea, as it would both reward Russian aggression and allow Moscow to occupy its territory.

"Regardless, such an agreement may now represent the least bad alternative“, points out the FA.

In this way, Ukraine, together with the territory it controls, could continue its course towards rapprochement with the West, while the eastern part of the country would remain occupied by Russia. The main thing, the author emphasizes, is to provide Ukraine with security and assistance so that it does not become a victim of Russian attacks in the future. The Trump administration should insist on reliable guarantees for Kiev's security.

This scenario would leave Europe face to face with a militarized aggressor, but it would also give NATO time to rearm and prepare.

"Moscow is suffering more than it is letting on, and for some time it will not be able to attack other targets. And by the time it recovers, NATO could easily become even stronger," writes FA.

Putin will naturally declare this settlement of the war against Ukraine a “ great victory“ for Russia, but the author of the article emphasizes that in reality the so-called “ special military operation“ has cost his country dearly.

Huge economic costs have been incurred, relations with the West have deteriorated, the country's diplomatic and moral capital has been spent, and all this in the name of “turning into a garrison state and a Chinese satellite - history will consider this not a triumph, but a catastrophe”, emphasizes FA.