European arms factories are expanding at a rate three times faster than in peacetime, occupying over 7 million square meters of new industrial land. This is according to an analysis of satellite data by FT for 150 vehicles from 37 companies.
Construction activity has significantly increased following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This, combined with political demands for increased military spending and the introduction of advanced systems for land, air and sea warfare, is reminiscent of a situation in which the Old Continent don't remember from 90 years.
New and new factories
ΠThe area around military factories, marked by changes in satellite flights, has increased from 790,000 sq. m in 2020-21 to 2.8 million sq. m. m in 2024-25. ΠThe changes are due to excavations before works, new buildings, asphalting of new roads and construction.
Among the facilities with the largest expansion is a joint project between German military giant Rheinmetall and Hungarian state-owned defense company N7 Holding, which is building a huge munitions and explosives factory in The Báppalota in the western part of Hungary.
Πin 2022 it is almost undeveloped. ΠThe first plant was completed in July 2024. It produces 30-mm ammunition for Rheinmetall's KF41 Luhn combat vehicle.
Construction is ongoing, so the facility will also produce other types of ammunition, including 155-mm artillery shells and 120-mm ammunition for the Leopard 2 tank.
The analysis looks at 88 facilities related to The European program ASAR (Actions in the pipeline production sub-program), which has invested 500 million euros for the creation of complex "liquid goals" in the production of pipes and packages.
Strong physical improvement is visible in 20 projects financed by ASAR, including the construction of entirely new plants and roads. B 14 facilities with visible small expansions, such as the construction of new parking lots.
Rheinmetall's expansion will account for a large part of this growth: the company says its annual production capacity for 155-mm shells is planned to increase from 70,000 in 2022 to 1.1 million in 2027.
Horse manufacturer Kongsberg has announced missile plant in June 2024, supported by 640 million Norwegian kroner ($62 million) in funding to increase missile production, including 10 million euros from ASAR.
Also in the late 1930s?
For more than a decade, some Western politicians and analysts have been comparing Russia's actions in Ukraine (and not only) to those of Hitler and Nazi Germany in the 1930s. On the eve of World War II, the armies and the industrial base behind them underwent a huge expansion compared to post-war times - are we seeing anything similar now?
The question does not have a simple and unambiguous answer. If you still need it, then it is: "Not completely, but still has similarities".
If we look at some specific products such as artillery ammunition (and especially - for the key NATO caliber 155 millimeters), the peacetime rate today is 6-7 times within about 3 years, and in the case of Rheinmetall we are even talking about 16 times growth.
This is comparable to the processes in the late 1930s in countries like Germany and Great Britain. Again, we see similarities in the pace of construction of new military plants, which the FT writes about.
The big difference is that in the years before the outbreak of World War II we see a huge increase in the overall share of spending on the army and military production - between the beginning and the end of the 1930s, in the case of the Great Depression, the increase was 5-fold to 15%. from BBΠ.
In Germany, between January 1933 and the fall of 1938, employment in the aircraft industry increased 50 times to over 200 thousand people.
Modern Europe is increasing its military spending by 30-40 percent, and not in increments. In addition, major changes are focused on where capacity is needed - for example, in the ammunition for traditional artillery, which has proven its usefulness in Ukraine.
Πone at this stage is more likely to talk about "awareness" of the need for defense at the level of the EC, rather than for advanced mobilization. And so on.