Usually at this time of year - the focus of the authorities is our money. Now in euros. This week, albeit with a delay, we expect to see the government's budget plan for Budget 2026. After internal coalition negotiations and negotiations with employers and unions - some parameters are now clear.
Without surprise, the bill has already provoked sharp reactions.
"Yes, usually the results of unreasonable management of public finances are felt with a delay. We see this in every fiscal crisis everywhere in the world in recent centuries. For several years, unreasonable things are done, money is spent without measure, deficits are made, loans are taken. At some point, tightening or correction must inevitably be made. The longer it is postponed now, the more severe the pain will be." This is how Lachezar Bogdanov answered on bTV the question of whether we should be worried about Budget 2026. Bogdanov is chief economist at the Institute of Market Economics.
"The growth of expenses must be controlled. We are not talking about cutting expenses. We are still in a situation of a growing economy, low unemployment, high employment, growing incomes. In such a situation, it is simply necessary that the increase in expenses in the budget be at a lower rate.
The rulers voted on a budget with a 24% increase in expenses. With inflation between 3% and 4%, you want to spend 24% more - this cannot but result in a huge deficit, especially if you do it next year," Bogdanov said.
The first thing that needs to be done is to control the growth of expenses. How - the growth of expenses must be in line with the growth of the economy. The economy will grow by about 6.4% is euro. Total expenses should be included in these 6.4%, the expert advised.
"With discussions about the minimum wage and these 15%, the topic is diverting from much more important things, such as - the increase in the social security contribution by 2 percentage points, which is a fairly serious increase. This means taking 60 leva from the pocket of the Bulgarian. In this regard, Bulgaria is far from being one of the countries with the lowest taxation.
The effect is this: The more you increase the tax on the social security burden, the more you suppress bright, legal, declared employment,", Bogdanov said.
In recent years, Bulgaria has had the highest growth in salaries in the public sector.
"As Mr. Dyankov said, the crisis will come in 2027. Now we have something on paper, we will see that it will not work next fall. It will be seen that the deficit is already unsustainable - then the time will come for difficult decisions and they will be painful. Now we are in a situation where we can get away without cutting expenses. Rather, with a smaller growth in expenses - this is not a cut, it is growing, but at a slower pace. "In two years, real spending cuts will be necessary. This is the political choice that must be made - either a little sense now or a lot of pain in two years," the economist added.