The composition of a majority and a government will be very difficult. Bulgarian politics in terms of its procedures has degraded to the point that hand-wringing has practically become the main tool for achieving political goals.
This is what political scientist Prof. Ognyan Minchev told FOCUS.
Coalition between GERB-SDS and "There is such a people" according to Prof. Minchev, it is possible, but at the moment it has not been agreed upon. "Is "There is such a people” raises its price to get something more like opportunities and guarantees, or simply has internal agreements with some of the participants in the process of broadcasting a new majority, we cannot know because these things happen behind closed doors. Everything promises, in practice, that the main potential participants in a subsequent government will play hardball and go through a number of bottlenecks and blockades before reaching any agreement, if they reach it at all, he commented.
Negotiators have their own fears and interests. "For GERB as the largest party, fears are divided equally between the two opposite options – to form a government and GERB to take responsibility, or not to form and in practice to lose its status as a leading and mediating force in today's political system. GERB practically vacillates between the dangers of these two polar solutions”, said the political scientist.
DPS, for its part, is not a leading party, it is not an initiator of processes, it follows, partners and at the same time is able to determine directions and decisions in key aspects of national governance, explained Ognyan Minchev.
"Delyan Peevski has a strong need to get a certain piece of public political power in the country. He needs this for identification reasons. However, this public political success is combined with a much larger, much more widespread informal power potential of the DPS and of Peevski himself, accumulated over many years, since the DPS and Peevski himself are intermediaries in the relations between the public system of institutions on the one hand and the oligarchic backstage on the other. The DPS and Peevski structures have enormous influence and control over all national institutions, over justice, over special services, over the corporate infrastructure. This is a power that, combined with public power, is frighteningly large not only for us as ordinary citizens, but also for certain political forces, including GERB. This is indeed a very high concentration of power, which is exercised under the guise of a political force occupying the modest second place“, commented the political scientist.
Ultimatums are part of Bulgarian political life, but they are not a useful political tool. "They are part of the low political culture that increasingly dominates political life. Anyone who starts to impose their interest with ultimatums, in practice, risks reaching the dead end that the participants of the assembly entered a few months ago”, recalled Prof. Minchev.
In the event of a failure of negotiations to form a government and new early elections in September or October, the interest in them will be even less, the political scientist predicts. "Bulgarian voters have unequivocally shown that they will not participate in this arrogant game of holding elections in a few months, just to set up the behind-the-scenes solitaires of the participants in these elections. There may be new or old participants who will have much higher scores than they have had so far. Every next step in turning the cycle of impasse will already lead not only to exhausting the resources of our political system as we know it, but will also introduce more and more penalty points for the main participants in the political game”, said Ognyan Minchev.