"I do not see any real prerequisites for the fall of the government and an alternative political majority that is for this vote of no confidence and that can hold it successfully - to go to new elections, hold them and govern". This was stated by political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov to News.bg about the start of the new political season, the fifth vote of no confidence and the fate of the cabinet.
Stefanov also described as science fiction the leader of the DPS-New Beginning Delyan Peevski supporting the fifth vote of no confidence.
"There is no way it can happen, because it is not a question of mathematics, but of constructing political majorities that present a program and know why they have gathered, and not of moving some opportunistically so that they can sit down", added the political scientist.
According to him, the opposition cannot overthrow the government unless the cabinet itself overthrows itself.
"The government can overthrow itself if GERB withdraws itself as a participant in power. Delyan Peevski and the New Beginning are not in power. Peevski, in turn, cannot produce a political majority," Stefanov noted.
He believes that even if the leader of "DPS - New Beginning" enters into a rift in his relations with Boyko Borisov, he cannot become the center of a new majority and there is no one who will stand up to govern with him.
"There is no way that Delyan Peevski and the New Beginning can be the source of a parliamentary majority that can govern without GERB and PP-DB. The other parties are medium to small. Mr. Peevski and Mr. Borisov are a complex puzzle. Mathematics, logic and experience are on the side of GERB and Mr. Borisov," the political scientist added.
Lyubomir Stefanov does not believe that the government can serve a full 4-year term, as it has a clearly stated political macro-goal and it is about to be fulfilled.
"New early parliamentary elections will take place when the parties in the minority have done enough to allow them to increase their result in a possible early election - then we will have elections. Unless there is a peak of public discontent and it sweeps the parties out of parliament, the political scientist pointed out.
And he added - there will be early parliamentary elections, but they will not be within the next 6 months.
He also explained that one of the most important tasks before the parliamentarians is to restore the citizens' trust in the institutions.
"Not only the national issue with the euro, but also the efforts of the Ministry of Interior to deal with petty hooliganism, which has already reached brutal proportions and the beating of a police chief of a regional administration. It is the job of the National Assembly to give a clear signal to all institutions in the state that there is no lawlessness and that everyone can do whatever they want, but that there is order," Stefanov commented.
He added that the time of the deputies until the next plenary session should also be enough to fill the inspectorate at the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), the SJC itself and the deputy ombudsman, but on condition that they arrange their agenda correctly and by priorities.
"If they wish, the deputies can extend their working hours, but the most important thing is to control a political majority that has a clear perspective and the schedule will subsequently come to pass. "They are all very big on requests, but the question is whether they can do things that don't need to be amended at 12 to 5. Laws are made and they start being amended before the ink on the seal that the president puts under them has dried," commented Lyubomir Stefanov.