In the midst of what Washington has called Operation "Epic Wrath", and after days of unprecedented escalation following the assassination of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, through Iranian attacks on American facilities and interests in several countries, deep concerns about the conflict sliding into a long-term war are revealed in the corridors of the American solution.
These concerns go beyond the issue of direct human losses and touch the core of American military capabilities, represented by air defense reserves, in an atmosphere described as "tense with distrust" in Washington.
The ammunition problem stands out as one of the biggest challenges worrying the US military leadership, as there is growing concern among senior military commanders that the fighting will continue for weeks, which will increase the pressure on the already "limited" US air defense reserves.
And the crisis is that there are concerns that this situation will last more than a few days, as there is a costly tactical reality, namely that two or three anti-missile air defense missiles are often needed to guarantee the interception of one incoming missile. This concern was echoed by the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, Adam Smith, who warned that the operation would force the United States to expend its already depleted ammunition.
This is consistent with previous warnings from General Dan Keene, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to the White House that ammunition shortages and the lack of broad military support from allies would add significant risks to any operation in Iran and to the American service members at risk.
On the other hand, the pace of the Iranian response appears to be worrying for Washington, with military officials at US operations centers having detected “dozens of missiles and attack drones launched from Iran overnight on Sunday“.
Further complicating the situation is “the sheer volume of retaliatory strikes and the diversity of targets” – including non-military sites in Arab countries - a major concern after the deaths of a number of senior Iranian regime commanders.
This leadership vacuum has led US military officials to express concern about “the leadership of these weapons and who now controls them“.
The unexpected escalation has led informed individuals to describe the atmosphere in the Pentagon and among some members of President Donald Trump's administration as reflecting “growing concern that the conflict with Iran is spiraling out of control“. In an effort to avert this danger, US forces are racing against time to wrest Tehran's grip on it.
The US Joint Command announced the destruction of more than a thousand targets, including ships, submarines, missile launchers and command centers, in less than two days. This number reflects, according to a US official, “a very aggressive effort to destroy as much of Iran's missile and drone capabilities as quickly as possible”.
Despite US air superiority with nine destroyers capable of shooting down missiles, the force faces a serious challenge in the form of the “Shahed” drones, which fly slowly and at low altitudes, making them “not ideal” targets for US air defenses, which explains the penetration of some attacks through the defenses, including attacks targeting a US naval base in Bahrain.
This complex scene resulted in the first reported US casualties of the campaign, with 3 US soldiers killed and 5 others seriously wounded, as well as minor injuries from shrapnel and concussion.
In a departure from traditional notification procedures, the Department of Defense kept the location of their deaths secret until it was revealed by Iraqi sources that they had fallen on the Iraq-Iran border during an attempted US helicopter incursion that was opposed by Iranian groups. Several US soldiers were captured and some were killed during this operation, with the US keeping the seriousness of the situation for its troops stationed in the Middle East a secret.
While President Trump acknowledges that casualties "are something that happens often in wars," and talks about a campaign that could last four weeks, questions remain in Washington: Can America's missile defense stockpiles withstand another Iranian attack? Or has the wheel of the descent into the unknown already turned?