20 years ago, Montenegro declared independence from Serbia. Today, the country is considered a top candidate for EU membership, but it is still marked by corruption, unresolved issues and strong political influence from Belgrade.
On May 21, Montenegro marks 20 years since the historic referendum that paved the way for its separation from the state union with Serbia. The anniversary is taking place in an atmosphere marked by the country's image as a “top candidate” in the Western Balkans in the EU accession process.
In the past few years, Podgorica has managed to move stalled membership negotiations forward, accelerate reforms and position itself as the region's leading EU candidate - at a time when Brussels is once again showing interest in expanding the union.
"It's easy to be an A student in a class of weak students," says Daliborka Ulyarević of the Center for Civic Education in Podgorica. Her comment reflects the broader regional context. While most Western Balkan countries have stalled or even regressed on their path to the European Union, Montenegro has been able to capitalize on the geopolitical momentum created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the EU's renewed focus on enlargement.
Independence Referendum
Montenegro declared independence from Serbia in 2006 after a contested referendum with a high turnout, in which 55.5% of voters supported leaving the union with Serbia. For the next 14 years, the country was governed by the Democratic Party of Socialists, led by longtime leader Milo Đukanović.
Over the years, Đukanović's government has faced repeated accusations of corruption and links between political elites and organized crime, while critics have increasingly described Montenegro as a "conquered state". His party was eventually ousted from power in 2020 after months of mass protests and church-led rallies against a controversial law on religious property. It became the first democratic transfer of power since independence.
"Montenegro is one of the few countries in the region that had sufficient democratic capacity to replace someone who had been in power for so long without major upheavals," said Aleksandar Popov of the Center for Regional Policy in Novi Sad, Serbia. "In Serbia, for example, this will be much harder to achieve," he commented.
Divisions over identity
The political scene in Montenegro is still marked by a division between sovereigntist and pro-Serbian camps. One side emphasizes a separate Montenegrin national identity and statehood, while the other views Montenegrins as part of the larger Serbian nation and supports close political, cultural, and religious ties with its northeastern neighbor.
According to the latest census from 2023, about 41% of citizens identify themselves as Montenegrins and about 33% as Serbs - a balance that has a serious impact on elections and coalition politics.
Pro-Serbian parties are among the key political factors in the country and are seen as the main channel through which Belgrade influences Montenegro's internal affairs. Officially, these two political camps have reached a consensus on Montenegro's goal of joining the EU. But unofficially - according to Aleksandar Popov, this balance remains fragile and vulnerable to Serbian influence. “Pro-Serbian forces can always block the European path at a signal from Belgrade - and this is already happening”, Popov said.
“We loved you more than you loved us”
Relations with Serbia remain among the most burning political issues for Podgorica. This is clearly evident from the reaction of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to the invitation to attend the celebrations marking the anniversary of Montenegro's independence. Vučić initially stated that attending the celebration would be like “spitting in the face of his people”. Later, he addressed the citizens of Montenegro directly: “We looked at you as brothers and sisters and wanted to live in one country with you. I admit, we are guilty - forgive us for loving you more than you loved us”, Vučić wrote.
Both Uljarevic and Popov believe that Belgrade has never fully accepted Montenegro's independence. According to Uljarevic, Serbia still treats Montenegro "as if it were temporarily lost territory". Popov believes that for this reason Belgrade will continue to do everything possible to slow down Montenegro's progress on the EU path. "Serbia does not want Montenegro to join the EU because it would undermine Vucic's main argument that 'Europe does not want us'. If Montenegro joins the union, it will become clear that the real problem lies elsewhere," Popov says. He said EU membership would also put Montenegro beyond Belgrade's reach - politically, legally and from a security perspective - and would remove it from the sphere of Serbian pressure and influence.
Montenegro's problems have not disappeared
However, Uljarevic warns that behind Montenegro's positive image as a regional success story lie many of the same problems that have plagued it since independence. "Corruption is still everywhere," Uljarevic says. “Some would even say that it is bigger now than before, because there are many more actors in power who are trying to satisfy their party and private interests”, she commented.
At the same time, the expert believes that Montenegro should use the current momentum of European integration as an opportunity for deeper institutional and societal changes, and not simply as a direct geopolitical path leading to the union. “Our absolute interest is to become an EU member state as soon as possible, but it is equally important that the process is carried out correctly and that we do not enter the union as a country with problems”, Uljarevic believes.