There are indications that Russia may be preparing a summer offensive in Ukraine. Do you expect a new Russian offensive?
Franz-Stefan Gaddy: I would not use that term. What we are currently observing is a constant and slow increase in the intensity of Russian military operations - there are faster and more operations and attacks per day. But the idea of a new offensive suggests something wrong, because it is very difficult for the Russian armed forces to conduct more intensive attacks. The limited capacity and ability to carry out attacks on a larger scale are the biggest limiting factor for the Russian army. This is because the Russian armed forces are constantly being pushed to the limits of their organizational capabilities.
Ukraine's main problem - lack of infantry
What can Ukraine do to counter the increased Russian attacks?
Franz-Stefan Gady: The main problem for the Ukrainian side continues to be the lack of infantry. However, the Ukrainian defense system itself can withstand the attacks because the Russians are not able to attack on a wide perimeter, and Ukraine itself produces enough mines and drones. Up to four million new drones can be produced by the end of the year.
To this we must add artillery - an area in which Europe is taking on an increasingly greater role and has already managed to compensate for the withdrawal of the Americans. Although the Russians continue to have superiority, they no longer have a decisive advantage. In addition, the importance of artillery has already diminished compared to that of drones. It is precisely in the case of drones that Ukraine has enough ammunition and capacity to prevent the Russians from achieving an operational breakthrough. Overall, there is a negative trend for Ukraine, but it is by no means catastrophic.
Minimal territorial gains, but significant losses for Russia
If all this continues, the Russians will advance slowly with minimal territorial gains, but with significant losses. The question is whether the Ukrainian front will hold out until the Russian forces are exhausted, so that Ukraine can then begin serious ceasefire negotiations.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that the limited scope of weapons that Germany supplies to Ukraine is being eliminated. What will this mean?
Franz-Stefan Gaddy: It is still difficult to assess. The elimination of the limited range may refer to the MARS missile launcher system with a range of 85 kilometers. This is not much, but on the other hand it may prove to be important in the fighting in the Sumy region. I do not believe that Merz's statement is related to the upcoming delivery of the "Taurus" missiles - such a decision does not seem to have been made.
Europe is not defenseless
But even if these deliveries become a fact, we should not expect too much from them: they certainly will not fundamentally change the course of the war, but "only" will provide additional capabilities and help maintain pressure on Russian forces. In this sense, I see Merz's statement primarily as a contribution to the main debate about the extent to which Europeans will continue to support Ukraine in the future.
In other words: the aim is to show that the German government is still ready to support Ukraine with arms supplies. Is that right?
Franz-Stefan Gaddy: Germany must continue to play a leading role in this debate. The Americans want to reduce their military support for Ukraine, and their capacity for individual types of weapons, such as long-range precision weapons, is limited. So if they reduce their supplies and their intelligence support, this will have to be compensated for by Ukraine's European allies. This is possible, but not completely, but only to a limited extent. And since the Ukrainians will not be able to make up for the shortfalls themselves, the Europeans will certainly have to supply more than the necessary weapons. However, this is within their power, Europe is not defenseless.