Public statements by Russian officials indicate that Russia still maintains broader territorial goals in Ukraine beyond the four regions it has illegally declared annexed.
The chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, told TASS on May 31 that Ukraine risks losing the cities of Zaporizhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odessa and Nikolaev if it rejects a peace agreement, writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), quoted by news.bg.
Russia may illegally declare Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odessa and Nikolaev regions annexed, especially if Russian forces launch offensive operations to seize these regional centers. Russia remarkably did not occupy – and still does not occupy – the city of Zaporizhia when it annexed the Zaporizhia Oblast in September 2022.
The Kremlin continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to wage a protracted war against Ukraine to achieve these territorial goals, and is not interested in good faith negotiations to achieve a diplomatic settlement to the war. ISW continues to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains a theory of victory that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue its gradual, creeping advance into Ukraine indefinitely.
On May 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that allows the Russian government to deprive shareholders of defense industry companies if the company fails to fulfill state defense orders during martial law.
The decree allows the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to appoint a management company to act as the sole executive body of the company to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian government. It applies to civil aviation and shipbuilding companies, military development and production companies, and state subcontractors. Putin is likely to set legal terms in the event that he imposes full martial law.
ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing Russian society and the economy for a prolonged war in Ukraine, not peace negotiations.