This is the first joint military exercise of Russia and Belarus on Belarusian territory since 2021. Then the maneuvers prepared the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysts see it in retrospect. Because then Russia also attacked from the northwest, i.e. from Belarusian territory.
Kiev considers it unlikely that Russia will invade from Belarus again, since Ukraine already protects its borders too well, says the spokesman for the Ukrainian border guard Andriy Demchenko, quoted by ARD.
Ukraine is closely monitoring the military maneuvers
“Our units, of course, are watching what is happening there, to what extent these maneuvers increase the danger to our country“, the spokesman also said. “We see that on the other side of the border there are Russian troops and Russian military equipment.“ In the first days of the invasion three and a half years ago, Russian troops entered Belarus first in the area of the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant, and then continued towards Kiev. Their advance was stopped only a few kilometers north and west of the Ukrainian capital. After a few weeks, however, Ukraine managed to expel the Russian troops from there, who were largely transferred to the Donetsk Basin, to the front in eastern Ukraine, the German publication recalls.
New reservists for the front?
At the very least, provocations on the border during the Russian-Belarusian maneuvers are possible, Ukrainian military expert Vasyl Pekhnyo told the Espreso television channel. "Furthermore, the exercise could represent a kind of covert mobilization for Russia," he warns.
The Russian army could send reservists to the exercise without saying that they are actually intended for the so-called special military operation in Ukraine. "And then they will be sent, for example, to the front in eastern Ukraine," the military expert adds. In this way, Russia will receive new soldiers and will be able to intensify its attacks on the disputed front lines.
Main goal: intimidating the West
But above all, the maneuvers serve to intimidate Ukraine's Western partners, Kiev believes. That is why the Belarusian military leadership has announced that it will also conduct exercises with nuclear weapons and new medium-range missiles. As in the case of the Russian drones shot down in Poland, i.e. on NATO territory, the Russians are testing what they can afford and how NATO countries will react. The Belarusian-Russian maneuvers have de facto begun. Testing NATO's reaction may be part of the goals of these military exercises, ARD also points out.
Medvedev accuses Finland of preparing an attack
Although the Russian leadership does not openly express its threats against Western supporters of Ukraine, figures from the Kremlin's entourage have been doing so for years. The latest example is former President Dmitry Medvedev, who said that Finland was preparing an attack on Russia. This would lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood, according to Medvedev.
Author: Florian Kellermann (ARD)