The tension around the Strait of Hormuz is already directly affecting European oil supplies. In the last few hours, the Polish energy company Orlen reported that there are no immediate supply problems for now, but ship traffic data shows a sharp drop in Saudi oil being directed to Poland via Egypt.
In August, 10 tankers with a total of about 6.6 million barrels of crude oil left the Egyptian terminal of Sidi Kerir for Gdansk. Only three tankers with a total of about 2.1 million barrels are planned for September, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. Saudi Aramco provides about 40% of the crude processed by Orlen.
The Polish company assures that its refineries are operating normally thanks to diversified supplies. Data from MarineTraffic shows that tankers with crude oil from the United States, Algeria and Norway are currently traveling to Gdansk.
The reason for the tension is not only the severely restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has also temporarily stopped its strategic East-West pipeline after a drone attack. The facility allows Riyadh to bypass Hormuz and transport oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, from where some of the crude reaches Europe via Egypt's SUMED system.
According to three industry sources, Yanbu's reserves can only support exports for another five to seven days if the pipeline remains out of service. This increases concerns that if repairs are carried out for a longer period, the problem could turn from a logistical one into a real supply shortage.
Meanwhile, oil markets reacted with a new rise. Brent futures rose 2.6% to around $107.33 a barrel, and US WTI - by 2.5% to $102.56. Reuters notes that investors remain concerned about attacks on energy infrastructure and ships in the Middle East.
The latest data for the Strait of Hormuz itself shows that cargo ship crossings fell to single digits daily over the weekend, down from an average of about 14 over the past ten days. Before the war began in late February, about a fifth of the world's oil supplies passed through the strait.
An additional risk comes from the Red Sea. The Houthis are expanding their control in the Bab el-Mandeb area, which is putting pressure on the region's second key oil export route. This simultaneously threatens Hormuz, the Saudi bypass pipeline and the Red Sea route - a combination that markets perceive as a serious risk to global supplies.
For Europe, the main problem so far is not a lack of oil, but the need to replace Middle Eastern supplies with more distant alternatives. This means longer routes, higher transport costs and potential pressure on fuel prices.
At the moment, Orlen is not reporting any supply disruptions, but the latest data clearly shows that the crisis around Hormuz is no longer just a regional problem. It is starting to change the real oil flows to Europe.