Europe faces a new risk to diesel supplies and prices after the administration of US President Donald Trump stepped up pressure on European countries to release some of their strategic reserves. According to information from Reuters on October 1, Washington warned Germany and France that it could limit diesel exports from the US if the two countries do not take action to increase supply on the world market.
These are significant quantities. According to a Reuters source, the US has asked the European Union to release about 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months. This would represent more than 40% of the EU countries' existing emergency stocks of diesel and gas oil, the agency calculates based on the latest available data from Eurostat. The amount corresponds to approximately one month of the total consumption of diesel and gas oil in the EU.
Germany and France are particularly important for the European security of supply system. According to the latest available data, the two countries hold a total of about 35% of the EU's strategic reserves - 5.6 million tonnes in Germany and 8.2 million tonnes in France. Despite the tension, the EU is generally meeting the requirements for maintaining emergency oil stocks.
Trump: We discuss the ban every day
Donald Trump himself confirmed on Wednesday that the possibility of restricting exports remains on the table. The US president said that the issue is being discussed regularly within his administration. He said such a measure could lower diesel prices in the US, although he acknowledged that it could have a negative impact on gasoline prices.
The pressure on the White House has increased after the sharp rise in fuel prices. According to AAA data cited by Reuters, diesel in the US reached a record $ 6.53 per gallon, and gasoline has risen by more than 40% in a year. The global shortage is being exacerbated by disruptions in refining and supplies related to conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.
However, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has already warned that a complete ban could have the opposite effect. According to him, if refiners cannot export the diesel produced, limited storage capacity could force them to reduce production. This in turn could push up gasoline and jet fuel prices in the US itself.
Why Europe is particularly vulnerable
The risk for Europe is greater because of structural changes in the market in recent years. After the restriction of Russian supplies and the reduction of its own refining capacity, the EU has become significantly more dependent on diesel imports. At the same time, the conflict with Iran has limited supplies from the Middle East, which further increased the importance of American fuel for the European market.
Reuters points out that the US already provides approximately a quarter of American diesel exports to the European market, while other estimates for recent periods show an even higher share of American fuel in total European imports. That is why a possible abrupt interruption of supplies would come at an extremely unfavorable time.
The claim that a US ban would lead to “for the first time in post-war history“ a physical shortage of diesel in the EU has not yet been independently confirmed by the European institutions or the International Energy Agency. However, current market data shows that the risk of further tightening of supply is real.
China further tightens the market
The situation became even more complicated on October 1. Chinese refineries have stopped exporting petroleum products to markets outside Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, Reuters reported. The decision could further limit the amount of fuel available on the international market.
The news immediately affected the price of oil. December Brent futures rose about 2% to just above $100 a barrel, while U.S. WTI was trading around $92.50 a barrel on Thursday morning. European diesel margins remain extremely high – around $80 a barrel, after hitting a record $95 on Sept. 23.
The global market already has limited spare capacity. A Reuters analysis shows U.S. diesel exports have risen more than 20% from 2025 to about 1.3 million barrels a day, while U.S. inventories have fallen to their lowest level for this time of year in more than four decades.
This presents Washington with a difficult choice. Restricting exports could temporarily increase diesel supplies on the domestic US market, but at the same time would remove significant quantities from the already tight global market. For Europe, such a scenario means the need to make greater use of strategic reserves and seek alternative supplies at a time when free quantities are limited.
Therefore, for now, it is more accurate to speak of a serious risk of shortages and new price pressures in Europe, rather than an inevitable physical shortage. The decisive factor will be whether Washington will actually introduce restrictions and whether EU countries will agree to a large-scale release of their strategic stocks.