About 13 million barrels of crude oil per day have been leaving the Strait of Hormuz, according to the latest estimates from Tanker Trackers. Oil analyst Rory Johnston estimates the flow at about 13.5 million barrels per day based on a seven-day average. The data is related to the increase in daily tanker transits, supported by the US military command.
Some of the growth comes from a change in Saudi Arabia's routes. After supplies were directed through the East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports, the Saudis have returned some of the cargo through the Persian Gulf. Attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure have limited the ability to use the bypass route, Fortune reports.
Different estimates for the same flows
US officials paint a different picture depending on what exactly is being measured. On September 6, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the seven-day average of oil flowing through Hormuz was just over 9 million barrels per day. “When you add in the bypass pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the flow from the region is more like 13 million to 14 million barrels per day,” Wright said.
That means the figure of about 13 million barrels doesn’t always represent the same figure. Independent tracking companies count cargo leaving the blockade zone or passing through the strait, while US officials include shipments via alternative routes. Therefore, the individual estimates cannot be directly compared without specifying their period and scope.
Over 20 million barrels in one day
Wright previously stated that more than 20 million barrels of oil left the Persian Gulf region on a single day - an amount comparable to the usual daily flow through Hormuz before the conflict. Before the start of hostilities, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through the strategic strait daily. However, the minister's statement refers to a single-day volume for the entire region, and not necessarily to a sustainable average flow through the strait alone.
The restoration of traffic remains dependent on the security of the sea route. The United States is facilitating the passage of commercial ships, including through daily transits, but private companies continue to report lower or different volumes. This preserves uncertainty about the true scale of oil supplies and the sustainability of the recovery.
Sources: Fortune, ABC News