The global economy is set to slow to 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, as high energy prices and the Middle East conflict continue to weigh on economic activity, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in its Trade and Development Report 2026, published today, 9 October.
Despite the slowdown, international trade is showing resilience. Global trade in goods and services is expected to grow by about 4% in real terms in 2026, after reaching a record $35 trillion last year.
However, the organization said that higher energy prices are increasing the nominal value of trade without necessarily implying a comparable acceleration in real economic activity.
Asia to provide nearly 60% of global growth
One of the most interesting conclusions in the report is the increasing role of Asian economies. According to the forecast, Asia will generate 59% of global economic growth in 2026. India’s economy is expected to grow by 7.3%, China’s by 4.5%, and Indonesia’s by by 5.2%.
These results show that despite global uncertainty, Asian markets continue to be a major driver of economic development.
At the same time, the economic outlook remains uneven, with developing countries particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices and financing difficulties.
World trade is reorienting
The report notes significant changes in international trade relations. Trade between China and the United States has decreased by more than 20% compared to 2024, while other East Asian economies are increasing their exchanges with both China and North America. This shows that global trade is not contracting evenly, but is undergoing a restructuring of supply chains.
Restrictions on technology exports, foreign investment controls and supplier requirements in strategic industries are becoming increasingly important.
According to UNCTAD, these factors make it difficult for new companies and countries to enter high-tech sectors.
Artificial intelligence drives trade, but creates risks
The development of artificial intelligence is becoming one of the main factors for the growth of international trade. Increased demand for semiconductors, servers and data center equipment is stimulating production and cross-border deliveries.
However, UNCTAD warns that the boom in artificial intelligence does not guarantee an even distribution of economic benefits. Investment and technological capabilities remain concentrated in a limited number of countries and companies, which could deepen existing economic disparities. The organization also points to risks to financial stability associated with the increasing dependence of capital markets on the performance of a relatively small number of technology companies.
Expensive energy remains a major threat
Among the most serious risks to the global economy in 2026, UNCTAD highlights the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Higher oil and natural gas prices increase production and transport costs, put pressure on inflation and limit the ability of central banks to reduce interest rates. This hampers investment and consumption, especially in economies that are heavily dependent on energy imports.
In comparison, the World Bank forecasts global growth of 2.5% in 2026, while the International Monetary Fund expects an increase of 3%. The differences between the forecasts reflect the high degree of uncertainty facing the international economy.
According to UNCTAD, the main challenge in the coming years will be not only to maintain economic growth, but also to create conditions in which the benefits of technological development and international trade reach more countries and enterprises.