Brent oil prices, fueled by tensions in the Middle East, rose from around 82 USD per barrel to over USD 90 per barrel in the last month. Ag. Bloomberg published an analytical material, according to which the probability of the price of a barrel exceeding 100 USD per barrel is quite high. Experts, however, consider this possibility unlikely, although in the near future oil will most likely increase in price and be in the range of 90-100 USD per barrel.
The lead analyst at the National Energy Security Fund notes that you should be careful with Bloomberg's forecasts, as such forecasts usually appear when oil is already rising, but then fail to materialize.
„Most likely we will see a balance of 90-95 USD per barrel. The market is gradually moving towards a shortage due to increasing consumption in China and India. But at the same time, we should expect production growth in non-OPEC+ countries. For example, in Guyana this year production growth of 300-400 thousand barrels per day is possible. Production can also increase in Canada, Brazil and the USA“, experts explain.
The oil market is unlikely to reach 100 USD per barrel, as even the OPEC+ countries are not interested in this. The fact is that the high price provokes a decline in the demand for oil. Exporting countries can therefore increase their production volumes.
Demand for petroleum products in the Northern Hemisphere remains high and shipping problems in the Panama Canal and Red Sea have already led to diversion of flows and increased transport costs and, most importantly, transport times have increased. "In the summer, the peak demand period, this could lead to an increase in cracking spreads for diesel and gasoline, which in turn will push oil prices. So I think we could see prices go up to 90-100 USD per barrel by the summer, but in the medium term I don't think prices will be able to anchor in that range. Most likely, this year we will see an average of $75-85 per barrel, experts say.
According to other experts, oil prices have already returned to levels comfortable for the majority of suppliers. At the same time, they are optimal for buyers. “If we ignore a number of politically motivated statements from the United States, nothing extraordinary is happening in the market. Normal recovery after a period of decline. A price of USD 100 per barrel, taking into account inflation in the dollar zone over the past ten years, can be considered the upper limit of the norm, analysts note.