It cannot be claimed that the percentages that the sociological agencies earn correspond one to one to one with the possible mandates of the parties. This was said by the mathematician Prof. Mihail Konstantinov, director of "Electoral Analyses and Forecasts" at "Gallup International Balkan", in the program "Bulgaria, Europe and the World in Focus" on Radio FOCUS.
"As of today, the parliament is outlined according to the five plus two scheme, with five parties entering the parliament, and the other two possibly. What is important from a political point of view is that there cannot be an easy majority, I would say that it is almost impossible. And for governance, two parties are needed, namely the first plus the third, which are currently - that of Radev and PP-DB. According to surveys so far, they have between 120 and 130 deputies. But a constitutional majority must still be sought, for example from GERB-SDF, which I do not know how it will happen, "he also said.
According to Prof. Konstantinov, the coalition between Radev and PP-DB is unstable because they do not have a unified position on foreign policy issues - on Ukraine, for example. "A possible government between them will be unstable and we can expect elections as early as September. And I don't see what other coalition there could be," the mathematician was categorical.
"The fact that there will be 120 plus MPs from a single formation is a dream", he added.
In his words, GERB-SDF and MRF should not have less than 80 MPs, which could give a constitutional majority to the other parties. "If someone wants to make constitutional changes, they should invite GERB and MRF, too", said Prof. Konstantinov.
Regarding the bought vote, he said: "It doesn't depend on anyone. There's no way to prevent it. What we're seeing at the moment is some push by the Ministry of Interior, as mentioned, to prevent and respect potential sellers and rather buyers of votes, who quite often turn out to be from the criminal contingent. And not in vain, when they go looking for such people, they find forgotten substances, etc.,", said the guest.
He added that this currently has no direct connection with the elections, since the trade is done immediately before the vote and at another level.
The mathematician stated that the violations found cannot reverse the election result. "The case, which was from October 27 of last year, is exceptional. Because then a party "Velichy" was hanging on the barrier. They reversed a critical situation. That is the reason. And then, to be precise, 16 mandates changed. First, because a party from 0, as "Velichy" was, received 10 mandates, and 6 others moved", commented Prof. Konstantinov.