"There should be strong candidates and a strong competition. My feeling is that this campaign, which we are about to enter, seems to have much more potential to be a real battle for the presidential post".
This opinion was expressed to the Bulgarian National Radio by Dobromir Zhivkov - manager of the sociological agency "Market Links".
According to him, however, the support that we can expect for candidates with lower electoral potential does not give grounds at the current stage to expect that they will play a significant role in the battle.
According to him, the first round will not be enough to elect the next president. The turnout will not be over 50%, the sociologist believes, adding that there will be close proportions of vote distribution.
"What we saw in April as an electoral reaction is unlikely to be repeated on this scale. This was the peak of a very broad social discontent, which is concentrated in one specific point. Since then, what we have observed in the monthly surveys has shown that there is an outflow. Moreover, no matter how clearly connected Yotova and Radev are, there is no sign of equality between them. These are two different political figures and we cannot expect that the electoral potential that still stands behind the PB will automatically be transferred to Yotova's candidacy. Let's not forget that voter turnout will also be significantly lower, which means that this will be a battle of mobilizations and a battle of expanding the electoral base as much as possible for each of the candidates," commented Dobromir Zhivkov in an interview for the program "Before All".
Regarding the expected lower voter turnout, he explained that the tension in society from recent years has already found a way to be expressed. This is a specific peak that will not be repeated, he was categorical and added:
"This will lead to a decline in voter turnout, and traditionally in presidential elections it is not very high. People assume that they have fulfilled their big goal, at least those 2/3 of society who wanted a change in the model, and now the motives for going to vote are fewer, and in the presidential race they will probably be even fewer".
The sociologist does not expect an active reaction in the first round from GERB voters. He assumes that they will join in the second round.
"It mainly depends on how much the campaign will move in the geopolitical direction of opposition or will move along personal compromising material, which will worsen the quality of the campaign as a whole".
According to him, the cores of the parties will remain - they will not be influenced. But the periphery suffers and is swarming with this type of campaign, he noted.
"In the end, it may turn out that this campaign is not as black as it seems to be starting out. It still has to develop".
According to him, GERB is in a mode of minimizing the damage they received in April.
"What they want to do is to stop a possible trend - a second repetition of a low result or an even lower result. Here I see actions in saving GERB from this downward electoral spiral into which it could fall. This is the priority with which the decision not to nominate is approached. The fact that we see significant political figures from GERB in the committee behind Yotova shows consideration for the new government and a search for a good development of the political career. This means at least one thing, and that is a conflict of values.".
According to Dobromir Zhivkov, the elections will be a big test for everyone - whether the new government will consolidate its performance and whether the right will manage to unite.