If the downward trend in inflation reported by the NSI deepens, we have every reason to believe that in 2025 we can enter the Eurozone - if not in at the beginning, in the middle of the year, and only a political decision may require us to wait until January 1, 2026, because there is no country that has adopted the euro in the middle of the year.
The economist and financial expert Julian Voinov made this forecast to the BNR.
"The latest data show that we are moving at a fairly accelerated pace to reduce inflation. According to the latest data for April of NSI, the inflation index is falling on a monthly basis and we have a monthly deflation of 0.3% and annual inflation is 2.4%. ...
To meet the criteria for the Eurozone, this decline brings us very seriously closer. At the moment, we do not yet fulfill this criterion. If the downward trend in inflation that we saw in April deepens, and I see no reason why it won't deepen, in the next 3-4 months we will most likely meet this criterion," he explained.
According to him, for the convergence report that will come out before June, we will probably not have covered the requirements to enter the eurozone, but if an additional report is requested by the end of the year, the chances are high.
Yulian Voinov agreed with the findings highlighted by the governor of the BNB and commented:
"Banks in Bulgaria have been preparing for the adoption of the euro for 2 years and almost all of them are ready. ... The financial sector - insurance companies, pension funds, etc. There is no information there. The Financial Supervision Commission is not very active and there is no public information if any changes are being made to allow them to operate with the euro, because it is about large financial transactions. ...
The other big topic is the state institutions and municipalities, since this is the first contact of the people with the state administration, and if there is any problem there, for example with the payment of pensions, it could cause a serious cataclysm.
A financial expert commented that upon the admission of Bulgaria to the Eurozone, the interest rates on the external debts of the state, municipalities and companies will be seriously reduced, but:
"The strange case is that all banks' interest rates are increasing, and only for mortgage loans is the opposite trend - they are decreasing. We have banks in Bulgaria that have mothers in the EU, provided that the minimum interest rate in the Eurozone is 4%, we give mortgage loans in Bulgaria at an interest rate of 2.5 - 3%. It is clear that when we enter the Eurozone and Bulgaria is forced to implement the monetary policy of the ECB, these interest rates cannot remain this way.
The question is why the Bulgarian banks maintain such low interest rates on mortgage loans. And the answer is because there are no other markets in Bulgaria that are liquid and developed enough for people to keep their money, and people have funds that they want to invest somewhere, the only liquid market is the real estate market. Property prices are very high.
He warned that the policy of commercial banks in relation to mortgage lending will change with the entry into the Eurozone and people should be cautious in their financial decisions.
Voynov was adamant that when Bulgaria broadcasts signals that it is stable and will not change its Euro-Atlantic orientation, it is much easier to talk with partners in the EU and NATO:
"Political stability must be in the direction of a Euro-Atlantic government that firmly defends these values.