What are the forecasts for the formation of a government after the upcoming elections on June 9, comments political scientist Dimitar Ganev in the studio of “Offensive with Lyubo Ognyanov” on NovaNews.
According to Ganev, there are two questions that cannot be answered before and immediately after the elections: will there be a ruling majority and if so, what will it be. “There are several options, but mathematically and politically there is no other option but a government structured around GERB”, he said.
According to the political scientist, it will not be possible to form a cabinet from only two parties and it will be necessary to join a third. “If there are only two, the majority will be too fragile”, he added.
The study examines 6 political formations. „I have never allowed myself to say that something will happen for sure, but from today's point of view, a parliament with 6 formations seems possible”, Ganev said and added that the “specificity of the ITN electorate” makes the outcome of the vote unpredictable.
„In the last few weeks, GERB has been clearly promoting the idea of Borissov becoming prime minister. This serves two party lines – electoral mobilization and negotiating position," Ganev noted. According to him, the negotiating position is aimed at GERB ceding the position of prime minister to another, but in turn asking for something in return from the other side.
The information used in the conversation is based on data from a survey by the sociological agency TREND, commissioned by “24 hours”, between May 11 and 18, 2024, through a direct and semi-standardized face-to-face interview, with a tablet, among 1003 people over the age of 18.