It was a surprise , which Ukraine did, all military analysts did not expect such a thing, although logically one should have expected the country to look for an opportunity to relieve pressure from Russia on its positions in Donbas. The explanations for these actions of Ukraine is to put pressure on Russia at another point, where it is unprepared and weaker, so that it will actually be forced to transfer both men and equipment to this new front line, at that on Russian territory, which is also very important.
This is what he told “Focus" Ivaylo Ivanov from the Union of Reserve Officers “Atlantic" (SORA).
According to him, the actions in the Kursk region will have an impact on the course of the war in a long-term aspect, since until now Russia has considered the Russian border inviolable. "Russia must plan the defense of the entire hitherto inactive section of the border with Ukraine. This means that it will not be able to have all the forces and equipment that it has currently concentrated mainly on the front in Donbas. And this will have a long-term positive aspect from the point of view of the defense of Ukraine. Dispersing these forces and assets along the Russian-Ukrainian border will provide relief to the Ukrainian defense.
We know anyway that Russia currently has both more people and more weapons and equipment. By the way, this is important what happened from the point of view of that narrative that Ukraine, you see, cannot conduct military operations, cannot plan and organize rapid maneuver actions, which was blamed by a section of critics. We see that Ukraine, when it has even minimal amounts of weapons, equipment and people, can very well find the weak points of the Russian defense and achieve significant success", explained Ivaylo Ivanov.
The scant and mixed information shows that the Crimean offensive has not yet stopped. "What we can be sure of is that we cannot expect any significant entry of Ukraine into the territory of Russia. There are rumors that Valery Gerasimov actually received a warning about the movement of Ukrainian units, and that the Russian president is, to say the least, unhappy with what happened.
Because in practice one of the goals of this invasion of Ukraine into Russian territory is actually the public humiliation that they were able to achieve and the PR effect regarding Russian President Putin, his claims to Russian citizens that Russia can actually lead this war. Russian citizens feel the weight of war on a daily basis, including through the covert mobilization that is taking place. Because according to the recognition of the Russian side and Western estimates, Russia manages to recruit about 30,000 people a month to join the armed forces. More or less, the monthly losses of the Russian army are more or less the same, so we have a continuous inflow", stressed Ivaylo Ivanov.
“One of the objectives militarily is to disrupt the logistics of Russian units, especially those fighting in Kharkiv. We have mentioned the political effect of causing discontent among the Russian population and serious turmoil and tension, which there is no doubt has occurred in the Ministry of Defense and between political leaders and the Ministry of Defense. And in the next place, of course, we have to take into account the fact that in this way Ukraine creates opportunities and better positions for possible future peace negotiations.
Russia has occupied some territories of Ukraine. Now, when it comes to negotiations, the Ukrainian side can say: “Okay, let's recognize these realities, but we also hold some Russian territories, and we are obviously ready to exchange those territories for legitimate territories of Ukraine”. The fourth goal of these Ukrainian actions may be the creation of “buffer" areas along the border with Russia, which would not allow Russia to so easily attack the Ukrainian territories, immediately on the other side of the border, as we observed in Kharkiv", commented Ivaylo Ivanov.
Maria Zakharova or some other representative of the Foreign Ministry said that she “She will request the convening of the UN Security Council to take action against these actions of Ukraine. Very interesting how Russia has now thought of the UN to raise this question, somehow forgetting that there are actually two UN resolutions from 2022 passed by an overwhelming majority of member states calling on Russia to cease hostilities and leave the territory of Ukraine as internationally recognized.
The Russian side presents the war in such a way that it is not just a war between Russia and Ukraine, but in fact it is a war of Russia with the rest of the Western world, in which Ukraine is simply a tool of the Western world against Russia. Not for the first time in such situations, it becomes clear that Ukraine does not share absolutely all its plans with the Western allies for many reasons. What we can see, at least publicly, is that the United States, and the rest of the Western countries, did not condemn these actions of the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has the right to use all possible means to ensure the protection of its territory and the restoration of its territorial integrity, as it is the victim of aggression, concluded Ivylo Ivanov.