Markets do not know what will happen. That depends on Iran and Israel deciding how to respond to the respective strikes. Markets will adapt. All the players out there are very careful as the game is already on the brink economically. The main concern is further escalation.
This opinion was expressed to the BNR by economist Ruslan Stefanov from the Center for the Study of Democracy.
The Chinese economy is not developing very fast, there is a decrease in the demand for oil. The escalation in the Middle East is happening against the background of a long-term trend of falling and calming oil prices, he explained.
What makes the situation so nervous for the markets is that participants do not know what could happen in the short term. The long-term trends are not in favor of either Iran or Russia – the main countries that have an interest in keeping prices high. The likely nervousness of the markets will remain in the future, Stefanov expects.
"Iran is not a key player. It is part of OPEC. The supplies that Iran is making are within what OPEC can recover."
In the show "Saturday 150" according to BNR, the economist outlined various scenarios. According to him, an attack on military targets in Iran would have no effect on the markets. If specific refineries were attacked, it would push the price down as Iran would have to export crude. The most escalating scenario is an attack on the main export terminal, which provides 90% of Iran's exports and is located on an island in the Persian Gulf.
"An attack there would effectively destroy Iran's export potential. This would mean further escalation – if those export bases of his were attacked, he could then respond with such strikes on the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the other major oil exporters, on tankers…"
Europe bears the results of the conflicts, still continues to cynically avoid sanctions and supply Russian oil, Stefanov also pointed out.