Most likely, the upcoming early vote will have a lower voter turnout - between 2 and 2.1 million people will vote .That is, it can fall below 30% - that means about 200,000 votes less. Seven parties in the National Assembly are almost certain, eight are probable, nine are possible.
This is what sociologist Yuliy Pavlov told NOVA NEWS.
According to him, 80,000 votes will be enough for one formation to enter the parliament. "Through a non-autonomous vote, this result is not difficult to achieve. PP-DB, GERB and any of the others will be sufficient to form a majority - with at least 20 deputies. A tripartite coalition will be completely possible, but no longer in the form of an "assembly", but with an agreement. Peevski's faction has an unlawfully large influence in the official cabinet, it is in its interest not to have a regular government", he commented.
According to him, voting in local elections is partisan, and people do not know the regional mayors. "Some of them don't even know their names, voting is based on momentum," he added.
In turn, the political scientist Toncho Kraevski also believes that the trend is towards a decrease in the activity in parliamentary elections. "If the activity is so low that 70,000 votes are enough to enter the parliament, then 10 formations can also enter. The possibility of going to another early vote also increases. An unusually constructive tone is evident in this campaign. Everyone offers their own formula, and no red lines are drawn. In general, all parties say the same thing, which means that there is a chance to cooperate, probably within the framework of an expert cabinet", he commented to NOVA NEWS.