When the US began launching "Tomahawk" missiles on Iran late last month, many of President Donald Trump's allies hoped it would be a quick, surgical operation, similar to last year's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities or the ouster of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro in January, writes "Politico".
While alarmed, they were comforted by the belief that Trump's open-ended goals gave him the flexibility to declare victory whenever he saw fit.
Now, more than two weeks into the campaign, some of those allies believe the president no longer controls how or when the war will end. They fear that Iran's attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which have rocked global crude markets and threatened broader economic woes, are putting Trump in a position where escalating the conflict - potentially even sending US troops into the country - is becoming the only way to convincingly declare victory.
"We obviously just kicked Iran's ass on the battlefield, but they are largely in control now," said a person close to the White House. "They are deciding how long we will be involved - and whether we will send combat troops there. And I don't think there's any way around that if we want to preserve our reputation."
The concern among some of Trump's allies is that ensuring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz could require securing parts of Iran's coastline, a step that would almost certainly mean deploying U.S. troops on Iranian soil.
"The conditions have changed," said a second person familiar with the U.S. operation in Iran. "The diversion no longer works because Iran is leading the asymmetric actions."
The dynamic is fueling anxiety among the president's "America First" allies, who worry that he is heading toward the kind of open conflict in the Middle East he has long fought against. With Iran capable of disrupting global oil supplies and driving up gasoline prices, some Republicans fear the conflict could soon become a political liability for a White House already grappling with voter discontent ahead of the midterm elections.
Since the conflict began, oil prices have soared, with the American Automobile Association reporting that they have risen from less than $70 to nearly $100 a barrel, and the national average price of gasoline has risen to $3.70 — about 25% more than a month ago.
"The only easy day for the White House now was yesterday," the source added.
White House aides continue to insist that the war is not just going according to plan, but has been a "tremendous success," with Iranian ballistic missile attacks down 90% and drone attacks down 95%. They said the operation would continue until the president determined his objectives had been achieved.
"Through a detailed planning process, the entire administration is and has been prepared for any potential actions taken by the terrorist Iranian regime," said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly. "President Trump knew full well that Iran would seek to disrupt freedom of navigation and the free flow of energy and has already taken action to destroy over 30 mining vessels".
"Furthermore, the President has made it clear that any disruptions to energy supplies are temporary and will bring enormous benefits to our country and the global economy in the long term," she added.
Allies' concerns have only been heightened by the deployment of additional U.S. forces to the region, including the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, which carries the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. The deployment puts roughly 2,000 Marines and their aircraft within striking distance of the war, capable of seizing ports, defending shipping lanes and undertaking limited ground operations.
In recent days, Trump has wavered about the trajectory of the war, at times suggesting that the fighting might end soon while warning that the United States was prepared to escalate if Iran continued to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices fell below $95 a barrel on Thursday after Trump said he would soon announce which countries had agreed to help secure the strait.
Some of Trump's most vocal "America First" allies are urging the White House not to rush into a ground war, arguing that the US still has multiple ways to put pressure on Iran without sending troops ashore. However, they acknowledge that the president’s options are narrowing with each additional escalation step the US takes.
So far, the campaign has focused on airstrikes targeting Iranian military facilities and leaders — a strategy designed to weaken Tehran’s ability to retaliate without sending in large numbers of US troops.
Trump ally Jack Posobiec listed a number of ways the US could still increase pressure without ground troops — by stopping oil tankers, launching cyberattacks, targeting Iranian financial assets and relying on allied naval forces, such as Israel.
"This also increases the level of escalation, but it doesn’t necessarily require a presence on the ground," Posobiec explained. "There are people who are seriously fighting for the president to send troops there because they realize that once he does, the mission will spread so far that it could become a full-scale war, and they deeply want that".
Iran's strategy is centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 1/5 of the world's oil supplies pass. With its conventional forces taking a heavy hit, Tehran has turned to a tactic that military planners have long feared: threatening commercial shipping through one of the world's most critical energy hubs. Some Trump allies say the scale of the initial U.S. strikes, which killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with dozens of top commanders and family members, could make it harder for the regime to retreat. "You kill one guy, the next one is even more radical. You kill his father and his wife," said a third source close to the White House, referring to Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son. "Do you think he'll be more - or less - sensible?".
He added that deploying troops was not Trump's "instinct" - and suggested it would lower the US leader's approval rating to that of former President Richard Nixon after the Watergate scandal.
Trump's approval rating is hovering around 40%, compared to above 50% at the start of his term; for reference, Nixon's approval rating when he resigned was around 25%.
"He's seen this story before and I think he knows how it plays out politically," the source said.