With global energy prices rising and public confidence in his job falling, Donald Trump is facing difficult decisions after a month of war with Iran. He must choose to make a potentially unprofitable deal and walk away, or decide to escalate the military action, risking a protracted conflict that could consume all his attention and ruin his second term as president. Despite the intense diplomatic activity, Trump is wrapping up another week of a joint US-Israeli military campaign, struggling to contain a growing crisis in the Middle East as Iran controls oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf and continues to launch missile and drone strikes in the region. The central question, analysts say, is whether the US president is ready to scale back or intensify what critics call a war of his choosing that has caused the worst shake-up in the history of global energy supplies and has spread far beyond the region. Trump told the Trump has told his advisers he wants to avoid a "forever war" and find a way out through a deal, urging them to publicly announce the length of the military action he has outlined, which is to say it will last four to six weeks, a senior White House official said, adding that such a timeline appears "unbelievable." At the same time, Trump has threatened a major military escalation if talks fail.
Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran, including a 15-point peace deal channeled through a third country, Pakistan, have looked like an increasingly frantic search for a way out. It remains unclear whether there is any real prospect of fruitful negotiations at this time.
"President Trump has little leverage to end the war," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence official for the Middle East. “Part of the difficulty is the lack of clarity about what constitutes a satisfactory outcome,” he added.
A White House official insisted that the Iran campaign “will end when the commander in chief determines that our objectives have been achieved” and that the objectives set by Trump are clear.
TRUMP STRUGGLES TO CONTROL escalating war
Apparently bracing himself, Trump is deploying thousands more U.S. troops to the region and warning Iran of a major offensive, possibly involving ground troops, if it does not comply with his demands.
Analysts say such a show of force could be intended to create leverage to force Tehran to make concessions. But Trump risks dragging the US into a more protracted conflict, with any engagement with Iranian territory likely to anger many American voters.
Another possible scenario, experts say, would be for the US to launch a final massive airstrike as part of Operation Epic Fury to further damage Iran's military capabilities and nuclear facilities. Trump would then declare victory and leave, saying his military objectives had been achieved.
Such a claim, however, rings hollow unless the vital Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, which Iran has so far refused to allow.
Trump has expressed disappointment at the refusal of European allies to send warships to help secure the waterway. The US president, who has repeatedly vowed to keep the US out of conflicts abroad, appears to be struggling to contain the escalating war that began with Israel on February 28.
Even as he continues to make triumphant assessments, he is increasingly directing his messages toward calming shaken financial markets, pressing his top advisers to emphasize that the war will end soon, said the senior White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
But the lack of a clear exit strategy poses dangers to both Trump's presidency and his party's prospects as Republicans seek to protect their fragile majority in the US Congress in November's midterm elections.
Trump's biggest mistake, however, is the scale of the Iranian retaliation. Tehran has used its remaining stockpiles of missiles and drones to strike Israel and the Gulf states, and most notably, it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes. These are shockwaves that are shaking the global economy.
“The bet for the Iranian government is that it can take more pain for longer than its adversaries. And maybe Tehran is right,“ said John Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
The White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Trump and his team were “well prepared” for Iran's response in the Strait of Hormuz and were confident it would soon be reopened. But the clearest sign of the president’s growing anxiety about war came with a dramatic postponement of his threat to destroy Iran’s energy grid if Tehran did not allow shipping through the strait to resume. In a move seen as a way to calm markets, Trump first announced a five-day reprieve on Monday to give diplomacy a chance. On Thursday, the US president extended the reprieve by another 10 days. Meanwhile, pressure at home is mounting. Opinion polls show war is extremely “unpopular” among Americans, and while Trump's MAGA movement is largely behind him, his influence with the political electorate could wane if the economic fallout, including high gas prices, lingers.
Trump's overall approval rating has fallen to 36%, the lowest level since he returned to the White House, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Monday.
The White House is increasingly worried about the political fallout from the war, a former senior Trump administration official told Reuters, citing concerns expressed by Republican congressional leaders about the upcoming midterm elections.
In a sign of growing Republican concern, U.S. House of Representatives Representative Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, criticized the administration on Thursday for not providing enough information about the scope of the of the Iranian campaign.
A White House official told Reuters that Trump's advisers had briefed the US Congress repeatedly before and during the war.
A DIFFICULT DIPLOMACY COMPLICATED BY THE ASSASSINS
The diplomatic path so far offers no easy solutions.
The 15-point plan presented by Trump is similar to what Iran largely rejected in pre-war negotiations, and includes some points that would be difficult to implement. The demands range from rolling back Iran's nuclear program and limiting its missile arsenal to ending support for armed proxy groups and effectively handing over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has called the U.S. proposal unfair and unrealistic, although it did not rule out further indirect contacts.
While Trump said on Thursday that Iran was "begging" for a deal, the country's leaders "appear to be in no hurry to negotiate an end to the conflict," analysts said. Iran's leaders believe they will be in a position to claim victory only if they survive.
Complicating the diplomatic effort is the replacement of some Iranian leaders killed in U.S.-Israeli air strikes with even more hardline successors, analysts told Reuters. Iran's leaders have made it clear they do not trust Trump, who has launched airstrikes twice in the past year while the two sides were still negotiating. "The president is willing to listen to them, but if they don't accept the reality of the moment, they will be hit harder than ever," the White House official told Reuters. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have signaled concern that Trump could make concessions that could tie their hands to further strikes against Iran. Washington's Gulf allies may also resent a hasty U.S. withdrawal from the conflict, given that they could be left with a wounded, hostile neighbor. Contradictory signals upset the balance of rivals WASHINGTON
If Trump is indeed prepared to deploy ground troops in Iran, he could seize control of Iran's oil hub on Kharg Island or other strategic islands, operate along the country's coast, or send special forces to seize control of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be stored mostly underground.
Such moves could lead to a broader conflict, echoing the long-running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which Trump has vowed the United States would never be involved in while in office.
In that case, the president also risks a rise in American casualties, which would raise further questions about the goals of the US mission.
US allies in the Persian Gulf have warned the government in Washington not to deploy troops on the ground in Iran, saying it could prompt Tehran to continue retaliating, possibly against their energy and civilian infrastructure, said a senior Persian Gulf official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
According to information from the White House, Trump has made it clear that "he has no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time", but added that he always keeps all the cards on the table.
For now, he is also keeping the world on edge, making statements aimed at calming markets one moment, and threats that will raise energy prices the next.
"Trump is sending mixed signals", said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. "He himself is a 'fog of war' machine, sending messages to his adversaries to keep them off balance," Blumenfeld says.
Translated from English: Ivo Tasev, BTA