The composition of a government is not just a list of appointments, but a map of real power and circles of influence. What will the first decisions, contracts and appointments show? And who may be the most important figures in the cabinet.
The names of the ministers in Rumen Radev's cabinet will soon become known and the public will decipher who the decisive factors are behind them. Often this is not clear from the very beginning, but sooner or later it is revealed - either through appointments or through public procurement.
Until Rumen Radev returns the completed mandate of President Iliana Yotova, none of the mentioned ministerial candidates can be sure. However, attention is already focused on the figures whose names have been mentioned for key portfolios such as the ministries of interior and finance, as well as the departments that allocate the largest resources - energy, agriculture and regional development.
For the position of Minister of Defense, where huge funds are being used for army modernization projects, Radev will probably choose someone from his loyal military. It is unlikely that this will be his advisor Dimitar Stoyanov again, who held this position in the official cabinet.
Repair activities for the Ministry of Interior
Ivan Demerdzhiev seems to have no competition for the position of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior. The same one who recently said on BNT: “My heart remains in the Ministry of Interior!”, but he is ready to fulfill any task assigned to him (read: ministry). It seems that the task has been assigned and on bTV yesterday he was quite categorical: “If I am offered to become Minister of Internal Affairs, I will accept and take on this responsibility”. Such public statements cannot be a personal position – rather they are a signal that the decision has already been made. Demerdzhiev would be a laughing stock if he did not get the position.
The star of the Plovdiv lawyer rose thanks to President Radev's advisor on legal issues and anti-corruption, Plamen Uzunov, a former police chief in Plovdiv. He left the presidency together with the future political leader, but was not a candidate for deputy. From the Plovdiv list of “Progressive Bulgaria”, another former police chief from Plovdiv entered the 52nd National Assembly - Dimitar Balev. Another of the Plovdiv candidates associated with the Ministry of Interior - Petar Todorov, who was also the Secretary General, remained outside the parliament, but may return to the Ministry of Interior.
Demerdzhiev has already noted that the Ministry of Interior has many problems, but did not name any of them. The section “Public Order and Security” in the program of “Progressive Bulgaria”, if it is going to be worked on, shows that repair work is rather ahead. The essential proposals are two - depoliticization of the Ministry of Interior and coordination between the services. Appointments based on professionalism, not loyalty, and even a mandate for the Secretary General, sound like an attempt to limit political interference, but without it being clear how. The long-standing systemic defect is acknowledged - the lack of real coordination between services - and a common information system is proposed.
The idea is borrowed from working Western models, but the risk is great. Without strong control and guarantees for data protection, vulnerable in Bulgaria, such a system could become a mechanism for concentrating information and influence in the same hands.
Cut or give away in finance?
Former deputy mayor of Sofia Ivan Vassilev looks like a likely minister of finance. This was also his portfolio in the Sofia Municipality, which he left last summer. Vassilev, whose profile is technocratic, fits into the line of stricter financial managers who rely on control and efficiency instead of expanding spending. His actions so far show that he would seek to limit deficits and improve collection.
But the question remains whether this model can be applied without tension at the national level, where social and political pressure is significantly stronger. It is not yet known which way he will tip the scales, if he becomes Minister of Finance, we will know him by his budget.
Vassilev was the financier who accelerated the change of the servicing bank of the Sofia Municipality, after the Municipal Bank had been such for nearly 30 years. He did not receive support even from the PP-DB group of advisors, and he exchanged less than diplomatic public remarks with the PP leader, Asen Vassilev.
The biggest resource
There is currently no alternative for the MRDPW, Ivan Shishkov, also a cadre from the caretaker government, as well as another former caretaker minister and presidential advisor Yavor Gechev - for the Ministry of Agriculture and Food. More important than the Minister of Agriculture, however, is the person at the head of the State Fund "Agriculture" - the body managing European and national funds. The MRF has always had an influence on this figure and it would not be a surprise if he is again a cadre associated with these political circles. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, formed after the split in the MRF, is expected to receive seats in the government.
For the Ministry of Energy, the name of Kiril Temelkov is being touted, who comes from the Bulgarian Gas Association, which unites traders of energy raw materials, and was the executive director of "Bulgartransgaz" by 2014. It will also depend on whether the stain on Radev's reputation from the deal with the Turkish company “Botaş” will be cleared.
The agreement, concluded by the caretaker government of the president, provides access to Turkey's capacity. According to the caretaker Minister of Energy Traycho Traykov, the way in which it was concluded makes it “economically inefficient” and he is moderately optimistic that its parameters will be renegotiated.
In addition to the name of the energy minister, it is also important who the new representatives will be on the boards of the state energy company, the largest public procurement contractor along with the railways.
However, the real configuration of power will not be seen in the folder with names that Rumen Radev will give to President Yotova, but in the first decisions, contracts and appointments that his government will make. They will show whether there is clientelism (posts and resources for “our people”) and conformism (“let's not spoil our relations”). Then it will become clear whether the state is being governed or redistributed again.
This text expresses the opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.