Like any dictator, Putin is also a prisoner of fear. He hides his travels and builds identical bunkers so that no one knows exactly where he is. The only question is how, when and who will take advantage of the regime's paranoia.
The May 9 parade in Moscow will be held in an atmosphere of suspicion and fear - mobile Internet is turned off, and military equipment will not pass through Red Square. In this regard, information appeared in the media (with reference to an anonymous European intelligence service) that this is related to Vladimir Putin's fear of a conspiracy. We hardly need to doubt this diagnosis, although a detailed analysis of the rumors also reveals some inconsistencies.
Shoigu - the head of a conspiracy against Putin?
According to the media, the leader of the conspiracy against Vladimir Putin may be the Secretary of the National Security Council and former Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. This old-time figure in Russian politics was already in the government when Putin was still known only to his KGB colleagues in St. Petersburg. But Shoigu's influence has long since waned. His former deputies in the Ministry of Defense have been dismissed, some have gone into hiding, but most are under investigation or arrested. To this we must add the fact that Shoigu enjoys almost universal hatred among officers and soldiers.
Equally unconvincing in the “intelligence report“ are the assessments of their Russian “colleagues”. The special services in Russia are presented in a confusing manner, as are their real functions. The checks at the entrance to the presidential administration, which the Federal Security Service (FSO) has been carrying out since the 2000s, are presented as some kind of sensational change. And the total surveillance of service personnel, the government and other high-ranking officials, which has been going on for many years, is described as a completely new phenomenon.
Even the weak-willed deputies of the Russian State Duma seem to inspire fear in Putin, which is why they were not invited to the May 9 parade. This is the paranoia of the “Julius Caesar” type, and the Russian dictator, it seems, is afraid of being cut down by the daggers of secret fighters for democracy among the Russian parliamentarians with shouts.
We can tell for a long time and even with a dose of humor various rumors with the help of which the Russian special services and clans close to Putin fight each other, trying to discredit each other in his eyes. But the most important thing is something else: even without the reports of unnamed intelligence services, there are enough facts that Putin is afraid.
"Conspiracy mania" of dictators
The most common type of “conspiracy mania“ usually brings dictators to a situation in which power is seized by their closest aides. An example from the distant past: the emperor of North China, Xizong, who ruled in the mid-12th century, was very afraid of losing power and, on the advice of his cousin, killed practically everyone he could count on - including those who would hand over power. Then he was killed by those who compiled lists of the "unreliable" for him, and his cousin in question came to power.
Another example is the emperor of Byzantium Andronicus. In order to seize power, he first became regent, then killed his cousin's widow, and then his young nephew Alexius II. Then he ascended the throne, but fell ill with the typical dictatorial obsession with persecution - and began to kill or expel everyone who could claim the throne. This ends with a spontaneous general uprising against the repressions and his painful death.
But the most famous example is from more recent Soviet history - the liquidation by Joseph Dzhugashvili (Stalin), who on the eve of World War II was terrified of conspiracies and a coup in the leadership of the Red Army. This led him to undertake purges that led to severe defeats and huge losses for the Soviet Union after the attack by Nazi Germany in 1941.
Putin in the grip of fear
There is no doubt that Putin has long been a prisoner of such fears. He hides the route of his raids, builds identical bunkers all over the country so that no one knows exactly where he is, hides his personal life and has imposed complete secrecy on his loved ones. After the start of the large-scale aggression against Ukraine, these fears could not but intensify.
The American operations in Venezuela and Iran probably played a role. And now the FSO (Federal Security Service) or FSB (Federal Security Service) are already turning off the Internet in Moscow. But Putin cannot hide completely. As in the dictatorship of Iran, so in the Russian government, the ruler must personally “lead the parade” – and not only on May 9.
And it is already clear how the efforts to guarantee the dictator's security are shaking the system and how breakdowns are occurring in the country's governance due to his panic fear of the Internet and foreign messengers. And how total surveillance and snitching are worsening relations between the clans that share power. And Putin himself is increasingly isolated. The only question is how, when and who will be able to benefit from this.
This text expresses the opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.