More and more signals are being heard that something in the world is breaking, that the old authoritarian order in many places in the world and Europe is suddenly going downhill, and a new order or a new chaos is coming. What does this mean and what is to come?
Indians in old American movies can tell how many and what kind of horsemen are approaching and how far away they are by putting their ear to the ground.
Those people today who know how to listen to what is happening in the depths of societies can do the same. Such people not only understand what is coming, but also have the ability to hear the crash when things break: when the old order suddenly stumbles and goes irrevocably downhill, and ahead lurks either a new order or chaos. After decades of rise, today we hear - if we know how to listen - the breaking of the authoritarian order around the world. But first: a little history.
The Signals in Bulgaria
By the mid-1980s in Bulgaria, it was clear that after four decades of rule, the communist regime was on the decline. There was no electricity, fuel was limited, the shops - increasingly empty. The rumble of the coming collapse could be heard. And then, suddenly and unexpectedly, there was a “bang!”. And it became clear that the system was no longer going down, but was broken.
I heard this “bang!“ in the spring of 1987, during the first officially authorized rock festival at the Sofia Summer Theater. The band “Kale” appeared on stage with frontman Vaso Gyurov, then apparently 17 years old. They performed the song “Chicho”. Then, as was their turn, the policemen cut off the electricity and dispersed the crowd.
On the way out, I said to the handful of friends from the Sofia rock and roll underground with whom I was at the concert:
- Guys, bye Tosho, bye. That's all.
They:
- How did you know?
Me:
- It's easy: a society capable of producing “Uncle“ is not a society that can carry Tosho's people on its back.
Then, walking along the "Graf" , I had to give them a short course on Hegel. According to him, every institution, structure, system has its own spirit that keeps it alive. If the spirit disappears, what remains is just a shell - the offices, the secretaries, the company cars. But without a spirit, there is no life. Therefore, the relevant systems will be able to imitate something like life - in this case - I said - I give the Tosho people a year or two - but in the end they will simply die. And so it happened: the regime in Bulgaria fell two years after the debut of the song “Uncle“.
We saw this in our country too
What does this have to do with today's situation in the world and in our country? Everything - because Hegel's judgment about the spirit of institutions has the weight of a natural law. It always works. We saw this in our country in 2020, when we went to a mass beach party in Rosenets, then occupied by Ahmed Dogan.
When I saw how people came literally from all over the country and literally from every age, class, gender and occupation, I heard that “bang!“ again. The following year, Borisov fell from power, as it turned out - forever. And at the end of last year, record protests loudly announced the breaking of Peevski's rise. No, he will not be our prime minister, as he has been threatening for years.
Signals from Moscow and Ukraine
On May 8-9, the same “pop!“ was heard in Moscow. After days of all sorts of high-ranking Russians showering all sorts of high-ranking Americans with requests to tell the Ukrainians not to bomb their parade on Red Square, President Zelensky issued a decree. In it, he "authorized" the parade in Moscow and forbade his own people from shelling it, even giving the coordinates of Red Square. The parade took place modestly, timidly, without serious foreign guests and without military equipment. Putin stuttered some colorless speech, did not pump up his muscles and did not threaten anyone. Then the parade was over in less than an hour – unlike in the past, when it was half a day.
Listen and listen: the president of Ukraine - that is, the country attacked by Russia, which according to the Russian plan was supposed to capitulate on the third or at most on the seventh day - it is he, after four years of war, who "allows" the aggressor to enjoy the few marching soldiers in his own capital. Meanwhile, this same Zelensky had become the protector of the Arab countries attacked by Iranian drones (and left without protection by their traditional ally, the United States). And again, his intelligence had helped the Bedouins expel the Russians from the African country of Mali. And again, he had already told President Trump that he might allow Putin's parade, but in no case would he cede territory to him. Trump, in turn, suddenly stopped calling Zelensky a "loser" and declared him a "nice guy", and the Ukrainians were made into "heroic warriors".
In this situation, several “bang!“s ring out simultaneously. The first “bang!“ announces the transformation of Volodymyr Zelensky from a victim of aggression, whom we should sympathize with – into a world leader who can be expected to determine the course of major events in the future. The second “bang!“ signals the breaking of Putin – of his authority, of his ability to radiate power and crush entire countries with his army. The third “bang!“ signals the sudden insight of the American administration that Putin is not the strong man in Eastern Europe. And that he is not the one who should be helped.
And from China
If one listens very intently to world events, one will also hear the small pops that portend a big “bang!“ in China. Although the country most affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, China has been deafeningly silent. Why? Because it is too busy looking for a way to avoid the coming great “bang!“.
Today, Xi Jinping can no longer hide the catastrophic figures for domestic debt, which the IMF declared a record, the data on large-scale bankruptcies, the investment crisis and the crushed economic growth. Imagining that in this crisis the military would set out to overthrow him, Xi set out to exterminate the top generals instead of dealing with the crisis itself. The inevitable collapse of the domino principle is already looming on the horizon: the great Chinese “bang!“ it is hardly very far away.
What is coming?
And let's mention Europe, where Orban is no longer a factor and thus takes away the desire of others, including us, to follow his anti-European model. His already established anti-European allies have taken cover. Look at how even Fico suddenly became shorter than the grass, and Vucic is not heard at all.
What is coming? At the beginning I wrote that “bang!“ announces the breaking of the old order and the advent of a new order – or chaos. In our country, after 1987, chaos almost occurred (but not at all comparable to the chaos in Yugoslavia or the USSR), followed by a new order without communism. A new order, without serious chaos, came after 2020 (with the end of Borisov) and is happening again now, with the end of Peevski.
Not everyone is as lucky as we are. After Putin's breakup, there will be chaos in Russia, not a new order; we must prepare for that now. The same applies to China. In the USA, after the end of Trumpism (and a big “bang!" is brewing there), chaos is emerging, but not real chaos. And the new order, in which a Trump-free America will be included, is already being built by other Western countries, with the most active participation of new Western leaders - such as Mark Carney and Volodymyr Zelensky.
This text expresses the author's opinion and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.