Ukraine is preparing for the heaviest winter bombing in its war with Russia, which is entering a new, deadly phase, writes The Economist.
The article notes that the country is better prepared than ever: an unprecedented program to strengthen the electricity grid is ahead of schedule, with half of the work already completed.
"The country should enter the winter with surplus generation capacity, 14 billion cubic meters of gas reserves, improved physical protection of key nodes of the electricity grid and new private air defense companies to strengthen the weakened air force "of the country," the article says.
The bad news, the journalists say, is that the Russian threat is evolving faster.
The shortage of ballistic missile interceptors is one vulnerability. Another is the new Russian jet-powered drones that have been terrorizing Ukraine in recent weeks.
It is important to note that until this year, none of the 110-kilovolt transformers in the capital, which step down the current from high-voltage lines to homes, were protected. Working around the clock, Ukraine’s State Reconstruction Agency has already covered two dozen of them with reinforcing mesh and concrete, and has also reinforced power plants.
Overall, the situation looks much bleaker.
Russia has increased production of ballistic missiles—currently about 100 per month—just as interceptor deliveries have plummeted.
Meanwhile, Kiev’s vast thermal power plants are too large to be fully protected.
Moscow also has new jet-powered drones, hundreds of which have been launched during recent attacks. Currently, the only effective defense is provided by expensive fighter jets, man-portable air defense systems, or anti-aircraft guns.
A source in the Ukrainian air defense command reported that this combination shot down only 30% of the jet-powered drones during the recent attacks. The publication writes:
"Even more worrying is that the drones managed to hit important targets that ballistic missiles had missed for four years. The problem is likely to get worse. Contrary to Western predictions, Russia seems to have found a way to mass-produce jet engines".
A source in the air defense industry claims that the Kremlin has managed to circumvent sanctions and acquire equipment for 3D-printing turbines similar to those used in Western Rolls-Royce factories. The price of these drones has dropped by half or more, to around $50,000-$70,000, and will continue to drop.
"Ukraine failed to properly prepare for the threat, but our partners are also to blame," the source said.
The journalists believe that Russia's current focus is likely on the approximately 140 substations operated by "Ukrenergo".
Providing electricity to vulnerable cities such as Kyiv, Odessa, and Kryvyi Rih would become a serious problem if Russia were to destroy their local generation facilities.
The capital is particularly vulnerable.
It is important to note that some substations around Kyiv do not have backup power sources. The same applies to the city's connection to the nuclear power plants that supply most of its electricity. Water supply is also at risk. Without it, the sewage system and central heating will cease to function. Of the 15,000 buildings in the capital, 2,500 have no backup sources of heating.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the army to begin preparations for carrying out massive strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities.
"In response to the strikes by the Ukrainian armed forces on civilian infrastructure and oil refineries, the Russian armed forces have issued orders to prepare and carry out massive strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities. Ukraine will receive a response; I gave the order," he said.