Comment by Evgeny Dainov:
In socio-political affairs, insurmountable, inexorable laws of the physical type are rarely encountered. But some such laws still operate. We know about the “iron law of oligarchy“ (every organization strives to become an oligarchy), deduced by Robert Michels more than a century ago. These days, on the example of Russia, we are once again observing the action of the “iron law of the collapse of tyrannies“, deduced from our modesty.
In countries like the USSR, Orbán's Hungary or Putin's Russia, the collapse is, ultimately, inevitable – economic, political, managerial and quite often social collapse. The moment one realizes that collapse is inevitable, progress towards it begins to seem terribly, hopelessly, discouragingly slow.
But when the collapse does begin, it strikes with its unexpectedness, lightning speed and comprehensiveness. The immediate reasons for the start of the collapse are: the system is not able to cope with some sudden crisis; it has no supporters and allies, since everyone has long ceased to believe in it.
The collapse will be like an avalanche
Even in 2022, when Russia failed to take over Ukraine in a week, it was clear that in the end the Russian economy, power, society and (perhaps) statehood would eventually collapse. I wrote about this issue back then. This collapse has literally begun these days and is, as always in such cases, like an avalanche.
Yesterday, the Russian-occupied Crimea suddenly went, by order of the governor, from a limited sale (with coupons) of fuel to a complete ban on such sales. On the same day, Crimea announced a restriction on grocery shopping (maximum three items per customer). Also yesterday, 20 Russian regions (out of 89 possible) announced restrictions on the sale of fuel at gas stations. In the capitals of Moscow and St. Petersburg, kilometer-long queues of cars lined up, waiting to fill up at least the limited liters per person.
Get used to it, comrades!
A few days earlier, despite the hopes of Russians that Putin would one day give them the internet again (which they have mostly not had since the beginning of the year), the Russian tyrant decided to do something else: he summoned a carriage of ministers and other responsible comrades and tasked them with taking “measures to ensure uninterrupted access to citizens to basic medical, payment and information services during restrictions on mobile internet”.
So: comrades, from now on you will not have internet. Get used to it.
A week earlier, Putin reminded his subjects that their grandmothers did not deal with the internet, but knitted socks for the front; and called on today's Russian women to do the same.
A look at the bigger picture of the Russian economy reveals, although more and more data and statistics are classified, that even according to official reports, industrial production has been falling for the 11th consecutive month. In today's Russia, “industrial production” means military production, since in recent years it has eaten up all kinds of civilian industries. Today, it is also falling precipitously. Some key enterprises are quietly switching to a 3-day work week, which, according to Russian economists, means an immediate 40 percent drop in the production of the respective enterprise.
And the inflation that has been held back by Cerberus methods will explode at any moment, since (again, according to official data) the costs of all producers are increasing manifold, which cannot but reach the end consumers.
At the front, the Russians continue to lose over 30,000 people per month (compared to less than 20,000 during the entire 10 years of the USSR's war in Afghanistan), while in the rear, the Ukrainians are liquidating highways, ports and oil assets. Ukrainian combat drones, produced at the rate of seven million per year (!) are bombing all over Russia without any real resistance from the Russians. This was especially clear at the opening of the “Russian Davos” in St. Petersburg, during which delegates entered the hall against the backdrop of a huge fire in the oil port of the second capital.
What can be done in such a collapse? There are two models that we have observed in recent history. The first: the rulers realize what is happening, decide to change the unsuitable model of power arrangement and, in order to overcome the crisis, look for resources and allies everywhere - from the internal opposition, which was persecuted until yesterday, to the Western powers, which were stigmatized until yesterday. This model was applied in the communist part of Europe in 1989-90, and in the end the collapse was stopped and turned into reconstruction.
The second model is for the ruling elite to deny the collapse and to lock themselves in their own pressure cooker, where they indulge in bragging, theft and debauchery. And in the meantime, to imitate, “for foreigners“, normality – “everything is going according to plan“. The end result of applying this model is a complete collapse of everything, as we have already seen, in Russia's past, in 1905 (after the loss of the Japanese war), in 1917 (after the defeats in the First World War) and in 1991 (after the loss of the Afghan war).
In the "pokazuha" mode: the government is already inventing
Putin's Russia is confidently moving in this very direction. In recent days, Putin has completely denied reality. According to him, the Russian army in Ukraine is "advancing everywhere and continuously", the Ukrainian army is falling apart and the front is in pieces, and the Ukrainian attacks on Petersburg are nothing extraordinary: "Well, some drones will break through our otherwise impenetrable air defense system", as Putin himself explained. Regarding the economy, Putin confirmed that Russia is the fourth most powerful in the world, Russians' incomes have increased by a quarter in two years, and there is no inflation or unemployment. "Everything is going according to plan".
None of these statements have any basis in reality. This time it is not about data manipulation, but about an outright lie - about replacing reality with fiction. This inevitably leads to the notorious Russian "pokazuha": an imitation of something that does not exist. This "pokazuha" It was exactly what happened at the “Russian Davos” in St. Petersburg. The triumphant speeches of the Russian “responsible comrades” (there was a lecture about how Petersburg, which is infatuated with drones, is a world leader in the development of drones) were followed by debauchery and corruption during the delegates’ evening activities.
Putin’s regime is doomed
The crisis is here and the system has neither the means nor the desire to deal with it. What about the other condition (see above) for the onset of collapse: the massive loss of trust in the system, leading to riots and the lack of people and groups of people ready to defend this system?
The collapse in Russia is a fact, but the population has not yet revolted. It is keeping quiet because it continues to trust the system. This silence is for the same reason as the previous silence of the upper echelon (i.e. before it went into the "pokazuha" mode): Russian fatalism, synthesized in the word "avos" (something like "ha dano", but much more intense in terms of semantic load). "Avos" is gone. "Avos" becomes a miracle. "Avos" Trump came to the rescue.
I recently wrote that the doom of the Putin regime is visible in its preoccupation with attempts at imitation and spell magic in order to somehow influence events. These days, even magical attempts have been abandoned. No efforts to influence events are observed anymore. The decay is proceeding according to its own iron laws.
To li еще будет...