Author: Alexander Detev
"We are stopping the arms for Ukraine" - the words of the Minister of Defense Dimitar Stoyanov echoed throughout Europe, with all international agencies reprinting them. But what does this threat mean?
The next day, Prime Minister Rumen Radev tried to clarify: “The government is putting an end to the provision of armaments by the Bulgarian army to Ukraine. We have already given enough. Our country continues to suffer socio-economic damage from this war. We again call for a diplomatic solution."
Instead of clarity, however, this has brought even more fog and doubts about the geopolitical orientation of the country.
„Neither the former president and now prime minister, nor the former chief of his office and current minister of defense have understood that they have real executive power, and irresponsible statements cause serious damage to Bulgaria's image," commented former foreign minister Nadezhda Neynski to the DV.
Are we really stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine?
The short answer is „no." In recent years, the Bulgarian military-industrial complex has been operating at full speed and it is an open secret that it exports most of its production to Ukraine - mainly through intermediaries. Today, about 4% of Bulgaria's GDP is formed by the military industry. “They are talking about the provision of weapons “with no longer needed” from the warehouses”, specifies the former Minister of Defense Prof. Todor Tagarev. “This does not apply to the sales of weapons.”
Both Neynski and Tagarev, however, emphasize that one of the goals of the so-called emptying of the old military warehouses is actually the modernization of weapons and ammunition. The information about what weapons from Bulgarian military warehouses have been sold to Ukraine in recent years is classified, answers a question from the State Duma Prof. Tagarev. “But it can be judged that at a certain point, only through compensations from our allies, Bulgaria received 350 million leva for this type of weaponry that was removed from the warehouses. This gives an orientation of what we are talking about, but I cannot share more data", he adds.
During the time when Tagarev was minister, Bulgaria began to provide its old Soviet weapons in order to acquire modern Western ones, but now this mechanism will apparently be discontinued. “Through this mechanism, the Bulgarian army and the Ministry of Defense received additional funds that were to be reinvested in projects for rearmament of the army. We are losing this opportunity", says the former Minister of Defense.
What "damages" has Bulgaria suffered so far?
If Bulgaria receives billions from the arms trade, and the arms industry is growing and providing jobs for thousands of people, what does Rumen Radev mean by “socio-economic damage”?
Neither Prof. Todor Tagarev nor Nadezhda Neynski have an answer to this question. “In the Balkans, there is certainly no one left without a job. Factories are attracting workers from other regions, wages are rising. 4% of GDP is a very serious number”, commented Prof. Tagarev.
“The aid from Bulgaria has never been gratuitous. The 13 packages of supplies were compensated by a special fund of the European Union (EU). The aid to Ukraine does not reduce the capabilities of the Bulgarian army, but increases it, because we are replacing old weapons with new ones. The money goes to the treasury and if we accept their “practical approach”, this is precisely what leads to an improvement in the standard,” adds Neynsky.
In search of a “diplomatic solution”
A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent a letter to Vladimir Putin, inviting him to direct negotiations to end the war. “I see no point in meeting,” Putin replied.
From this perspective, the search for a diplomatic solution with the weakening of support for the attacked Ukraine seems completely short-sighted. “Prime Minister Radev talks about a realistic approach and the search for a diplomatic solution. I hope he can explain his position to his colleagues in the European Council. We have a letter from President Zelensky, who offers direct negotiations, but Russia refuses. Europe is ready for negotiations, but Russia refuses again. "President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov say that the outcome of the war will be decided on the battlefield," says Neinsky.
“I think that these statements are mainly for internal use - for the Russophile electorate of “Progressive Bulgaria”, in order to maintain the view that we do not want to harm Russia's interests”, commented Prof. Tagarev. Both Prime Minister Rumen Radev and Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov have already announced repeatedly that Bulgaria does not intend to block European packages in support of Ukraine. The same applies to sanctions for now. “In practice, we are part of these decisions, so we participate in providing this assistance”, adds the military expert. But he also warns: “Prime Minister Radev has already been praised on one of the Russian television stations for this position of his. This is taken as a signal by our allies that Bulgaria will no longer actively participate in this European policy.”
Nadezhda Neynski sees a serious threat that Bulgaria will simply be bypassed in the future. “The signal being sent to partners is: We cannot be relied upon”, she says. “And this war will end and participation in the reconstruction of Ukraine will be possible only for countries that are trusted.”
In this regard, she recalls the agreement on cooperation in the field of security, which Andrey Gyurov's office signed in Kiev. “It is a window of opportunity for the modernization of the Bulgarian army and the use of the most advanced technological developments that the Ukrainians have necessarily developed in recent years. The largest countries with the most developed military industry, including the USA, have a similar agreement with Ukraine”, reminds the former minister and diplomat. Now this opportunity may be missed.
And the security of Bulgarians in Ukraine?
When it comes to the security of Ukraine, the security of the Bulgarian minority there, which is believed to number over 200,000 people, should not be overlooked. It also claims victims in the bloody conflict, which has been going on for four years.
And while both Viktor Orbán and his successor, Peter Magyar, focused on the Hungarian minority in Ukraine, the Bulgarian position seems completely sluggish. There is also no condemnation of the announcements banning the study of Bulgarian in the territories occupied by Russia.
“The inability to conduct an authoritative policy is to the detriment of Bulgarian communities abroad,” summarizes Nadezhda Neynski in this regard. “An authoritative and respected state creates opportunities for achieving good conditions and protecting the interests of Bulgarian communities abroad."