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NATO and Trump on the swing

It is not clear where it will swing, whether this will strengthen the deterrent force of the Alliance is a matter of the future. However, there will be swinging

Jul 5, 2026 17:33 58

NATO and Trump on the swing  - 1
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On the night of July 4, at the initiative of the American side, Trump spoke by phone with Putin. Duration 1 hour and 25 minutes. The congratulatory telegram of the Russian president on the 250th anniversary of the USA was sent the previous day.

According to Ushakov, this conversation had "many meanings". The first conversation after June 14, the day of Trump's 80th birthday. The crisis in Ukraine and bilateral relations were discussed. Putin informed about "the real situation on the front". Russian troops were advancing along the entire contact line. Moscow preferred political and diplomatic methods to resolve the crisis, but to do so taking into account "Russia's principled approaches".

Trump confirmed his readiness to support a peaceful resolution of the conflict. US representatives, Witkoff and Kushner, are ready to visit Moscow. There were new prospects for cooperation after the end of the war. The two leaders also touched on "the shared history of the two countries", especially the importance of the Moscow-Washington alliance during World War II. Putin recalled Russia's contribution to the founding of the United States, and then confirmed his intention to support a process of stabilizing the Middle East.

He hoped that the US-Iran talks would bring long-term solutions. And he invited Trump to visit Russia. This was against the background of a "green light" from Iran to China and friendly countries for "special privileges" in transit fees through Hormuz. Then, after the rather crippled due to climate problems celebrations of the 250th birthday of the United States, Trump will travel to a NATO summit in Turkey, "for Erdogan", with a delegation of 1,000 people.

He travels on a new plane donated by Qatar and brings with him a disassembled helicopter, Marine One, and a car, the presidential "Beast", for use during his stay in Ankara. First, he will visit Anatkabir, the mausoleum of Ataturk, and then he will be officially welcomed by Erdogan at Beştepe, the presidential complex. He will be escorted by ceremonial horse units. The first is the one-on-one meeting. Working meetings between the delegations are to follow.

The promised "gift from Trump", Turkey's return to the F-35 program, does not cause enthusiasm in Ankara. Because the Turks will not be able to operate this aircraft independently, but only through American experts. But they will agree on the strategic corridor for security and military coordination in Northern Syria and for the search for lasting peace in regional security, including on the issue of Gaza.

It is worth noting that such security measures have been taken in Ankara that are at least puzzling. 40 thousand military and police officers as guards are the least. Streets and boulevards are covered with tarpaulins, billboards, signs and visual materials under the pretext of security. Entire alleys and streets are covered with tarpaulins. Are poverty, disorder and ugliness not being covered up in this way, opposition media ask. Demonstrations and marches have been banned for 15 days ahead of the NATO summit on July 7-8. There are checkpoints on roads and in neighborhoods in Ankara.

Citizens believe that the "tarpaulin security" is a problematic situation and protest despite the bans. Hundreds of people have been detained. Journalists are denied accreditation to cover the NATO summit. Like "Cumhuriyet", which mostly writes about foreign policy, NATO, the EU and the US. Society, Islamist media, intellectuals, parties, journalists are again divided on the issue. Questions are being asked, there are no answers. A familiar situation. In this regard, a report on NATO presented by the National Intelligence Academy is also of interest.

It reveals the rise of China, the US's focus on the Asia-Pacific region and the deep disagreements within NATO, but points out the new role assigned to Turkey within the framework of the so-called NATO 3.0. The report is entitled "Ankara Summit, Discussions on NATO 3.0 and Turkey". It acknowledges that the balance of power in the international system has changed, that the American-centric order has lost its former dominance and that the rise of China has pushed the West towards a new strategic search.

It writes that "the sharing of responsibilities between the two sides of the Atlantic has become unsustainable", especially after Afghanistan and Libya. It points to the disintegration of the Atlantic system and the rise of Asia, but at the same time calls on Turkey to take on more responsibilities for keeping NATO afloat. There is no hiding the crisis of confidence in NATO. Some see a danger from Russia, while for others terrorism, migration, energy security and instability in the Middle East are more dangerous. Crises in NATO, but new areas of responsibility are proposed as NATO 3.0.

NATO to transform into a broader oversight mechanism, not only military, but also in economic, technological, social and intellectual areas. A kind of "failure is used for further expansion". This is precisely the transfer of the burden from the US under the name of "burden sharing" or "burden transfer". The shift of the US focus to the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly used to transfer the financial and military burden of European security to European allies.

Washington retains control over key areas such as nuclear deterrence, strategic intelligence and global force projection, while the costs of conventional warfare, ammunition production, military mobility and the burden of front lines will be left to other NATO members. Division of labor among equals? Or a new hierarchy? Command and decision-making are with the US, and the costs of war are borne by Europe, especially by countries with strong armies. Well, in Turkey they are convinced that their army is strong.

This is how they explain the role assigned to Turkey. It would fill the void in the Black Sea, the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Asia. Everything is in line with the regional needs of the Atlantic system. Ankara as a "strong and exceptional example of the profile of an ally needed by NATO 3.0". The decisions from the NATO summit in Ankara remain to be seen. Because it is known that "everything flows, everything changes". It is also unclear where the NATO cradle or Trump's cradle will swing. And whether this will strengthen the deterrent power of the Alliance is a matter of the future. However, there will be swinging.