Comment by Ivan Preobrazhensky:
At the NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara, Donald Trump said that he would grant Ukraine a license to produce "Patriot" missiles and that he might consider closing Ukrainian airspace - apparently to Russian missiles, drones and aircraft. He also made it clear that he considered Ukrainian strikes on the Russian oil refining industry useful for ending the war, and after his conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky, he hinted that he planned to call Vladimir Putin as soon as possible.
Moscow responded positively to the request for a conversation with Putin, but a call never followed. The Kremlin found itself in a ridiculous situation that frankly irritated the Russian authorities.
Trump did not meet Moscow's expectations
The meeting in Ankara showed that there was a radical change in the Trump administration's policy towards Russia. This, by the way, became clear after the G-7 meeting, to which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was also invited. Even then, Trump expressed his opinion that Kiev should increase pressure on Moscow, and that the wind had turned - now the Russian army is in a weaker position than the Ukrainian one. However, Trump himself did not confirm this unequivocally.
Vladimir Putin called Trump on the occasion of his birthday and on the occasion of the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, which the American seemed to be pleased with. The Kremlin has signaled that it is waiting for the US president to resume his role as a mediator in the negotiations with Ukraine - a role that for the past year and a half has mostly been reduced to putting pressure on Kiev to accept Moscow's ultimatum and withdraw its troops from the Donetsk region.
For his part, Trump said that he would turn his attention to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine after dealing with the Iranian issue. In the end, the deal with Iran effectively fell apart and hostilities there were renewed. However, the US leader did turn his attention to Ukraine - but not at all in the way the Kremlin had hoped.
Putin is in a zugzwang
The point is that Trump promised, but never called. Apparently, the Americans will only be ready to talk when the Kremlin sends them some compromise proposals for negotiations. The White House no longer wants to "flow from empty to empty", as it made clear on the eve of the Ankara summit - after the visit to Moscow of Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff and the US President's son-in-law Jared Kushner was first postponed and then completely canceled.
However, Putin seems not ready to make any compromises. He wanted to once again imitate negotiations until Trump persuaded or forced Zelensky to withdraw Ukrainian troops from Donbas. And now he is at a dead end.
At the same time, Moscow is making contradictory statements. Lavrov is scaring the West and Kiev with Putin's ultimatum of 2024, i.e., to hand over not only Donbass, but also Kherson and Zaporizhia. Apparently confused, Peskov then suggests that they "think things through" Trump's words about closing Ukrainian airspace, then promises that the phone call will take place "as soon as it becomes necessary" - as if this depends on his boss, not the American president. Putin himself is silent on the issue, although he held a meeting of the Security Council.
The pressure on the Kremlin is increasing
While Moscow is trying to figure out how to get out of the communication trap, the Americans and Ukraine are increasing the pressure. Zelensky has already confirmed that an agreement has been reached on "Patriot", but it is not yet clear what will happen next.
It is possible that Trump, in order to distract attention from Iran, will say something on the issue. But it is obvious that the Kremlin is at a dead end. It is in a difficult situation in the rear and hardly has the resources to sharply escalate the situation on the front. Moscow has no arguments to convince Trump to resume negotiations on terms convenient for Putin. But it is also not willing to offer a compromise.
However, it may be necessary - of course, if the American leader does not suddenly change his position again, destroying the entire structure that for the first time seems so suitable for starting real, rather than imitation, negotiations with Putin.