The US strike on the Ak-Take-Khan railway bridge in Golestan province (northern Iran) on July 9, 2026 affected the Gorgan-Inche-Burun railway line - the section through which Iran's railway network connects to Turkmenistan and further to the Central Asian region. It is an element of the China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Inche-Burun railway corridor. At least 65 train sets from China have passed through the section in the past year, and the number of transit trains has tripled after the intensification of military pressure on Iranian ports. Traffic on the route has been disrupted, and repair teams are already working on site.
The Iranian route now carries a permanent geopolitical risk premium
Regardless of the restoration period, however, the main signal is already clear: the railway route, which until recently was perceived as a promising transit alternative, can be interrupted with a single blow. For international trade, this is more important than the damage to a specific bridge section. Transport corridors are chosen not only according to price and delivery times - they are also assessed to what extent they can continue to function in the face of any external shocks.
After the events in the Golestan province, the Iranian route has received a factor that cannot be eliminated by repairs: the permanent risk premium associated with new attacks, sanctions and possible further escalation. This financial risk is measurable - military insurance premiums in the region already reach 0.5% - 1.5% of the value of the vessel, which is five to ten times higher than the levels before 2023, and it will remain even after the restoration of the railway.
Against this background, Azerbaijan's importance is growing, as the East-West and North-South routes, which do not have such a risk premium, pass through the country. The Trans-Caspian international transport route connects the Central Asian region with Georgia, Turkey and Europe, offering a route that does not pass through Russia and Iran. The cargo flow along it has increased more than 3 times: from 1.5 million tons in 2022 to approximately 5.2 million tons in 2025, and the delivery time has been shortened from 28-32 to 13-17 days, respectively.
The importance of the western branch of the North-South corridor, which passes through Azerbaijan, is also growing. It carries about 70% of the total cargo flow of the corridor - approximately 8-9 million tons per year. Unlike the eastern route through Turkmenistan and Iran, this route passes through the territory of a country that is not involved in the current military conflict and is consistently investing in the development of railway infrastructure, ports and border crossings.
The Middle Corridor strengthens its position as a strategic alternative
This is not a one-time benefit from the damage to a railway bridge. The attack only made the trend of recent years even more visible: Eurasian cargo flows are gradually being redirected to routes that reduce dependence on sanctions and military zones. For international partners, this is another argument to accelerate the development of the Middle Corridor and investments in the modernization of ports, the railway network and border infrastructure. Without such investments, the political importance of the route will not turn into a full-fledged economic result.
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) fits into the same logic – A 43-kilometer route through southern Armenia, which should connect the main territory of Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan, and through Turkey - and with Europe. The framework agreement for its implementation was presented by the United States and Armenia on January 13, 2026, with the goal of completing the railway connection by 2028. If implemented, the project will expand the Middle Corridor with another sustainable outlet from the Caspian region to Western Europe. After the events in Golestan, TRIPP should be seen not only as a regional political project, but also as an additional element for the sustainability of trade between Central Asia and Europe.
The growing importance of the Azerbaijani transit hub makes Baku an increasingly important partner for countries seeking sustainable transport routes between Europe and Asia. For the European Union (EU), this represents opportunities to reduce its dependence on routes passing through the Russian Federation and Iran. For China - to maintain reliable land access to European markets; and for the Central Asian countries - to expand their access to the West - to Europe through the Caspian region.
The Golestan incident shows how quickly a geopolitical conflict can disrupt a strategic transport route that was perceived as reliable just a day ago. Ultimately, the advantage is not given to the shortest corridor on the map, but to the one that is able to function even in the face of external shocks. Under these conditions, Azerbaijan is increasingly establishing itself as one of the key transport hubs for sustainable trade between Europe and Asia.
Nikolai Marchenko, journalist (Sofia, Bulgaria)