Author: Konstantin Eggert
Alan Chi beams when he talks about his company's successes. And more specifically about the "Sea Shark" - an unmanned surface vehicle manufactured by the Thunder Tiger company, where Chi works as a sales director.
"The Taiwanese government buys about two thousand drones from us a year," he says. "We also export to Ukraine. True, not the drones themselves, but components for them." According to Chi, Thunder Tiger is ready to sell Kiev ready-made drones, but admits that they simply cannot produce the quantity that the Ukrainians need so quickly.
"Xi Jinping's "Homeport"
"Sea Shark" is one of the many elements with which Taiwan's armed forces are preparing to respond to a possible future invasion by China. Xi Jinping considers democratic Taiwan a breakaway province that, like Putin with Crimea, he wants to "return to the homeport". In other words, to seize it.
Most of DW's interlocutors in Taipei have no doubt that sooner or later the PRC regime, and in particular leader Xi Jinping, will attempt an invasion. That is why politicians, military and even PR specialists in Taiwan are closely monitoring Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression. As is official Beijing. After all, the Chinese army has not participated in combat operations since the short war with Vietnam in 1979.
The Chinese navy regularly conducts shooting exercises in the waters around Taiwan. The Chinese army's air force regularly organizes provocative flights over the island, and its special forces are demonstratively training to storm a mock presidential office in Taipei.
However, most Taiwanese experts do not believe that Xi will give the order to seize the Taiwan Strait in 2027-2028, because Beijing does not yet have a sufficient number of trained marines, nor enough landing ships and ballistic missiles. The most common dates for an invasion are 2032-2035.
More importantly, neither Beijing nor Taipei is sure whether the US will come to Taiwan's aid in the event of Chinese aggression. President Trump's policies are fueling such doubts. But both Taipei and Beijing are constantly studying the course of the war in Ukraine.
"We know that Chinese observers are constantly around the front lines in Ukraine and are reporting in detail on the course of the war," a senior Taipei official responsible for security policy told DW.
Although China's economy is larger and more stable than Russia's, Beijing is also closely monitoring Western sanctions against Moscow. Xi's regime is primarily interested in the weaknesses of the sanctions policy. After all, if he starts a war against Taiwan, China will also come under attack.
For example, China is heavily dependent on imports of energy raw materials (Russian, but not only). Less well-known is the country's dependence on food imports. Grain, meat and soybeans imported from other countries meet up to 30 percent of all China's needs.
Better 5% now than 30% during a war
According to Alan Chi, one of the main conclusions that the Taiwanese leadership has drawn from Ukraine's successful resistance to the Russian invasion is the following: the defending country can secure a decisive advantage in advance. To do this, it is necessary to pursue a firm policy of containment against the potential aggressor. And for this, funds are needed. Taiwan's Prime Minister Cho Chung-tae announced last year that by 2030 the country should increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. Currently, it stands at 3.32%. "Many citizens are dissatisfied and say that even 3% is a lot. But Ukraine today spends up to 30% of GDP on defense! Obviously, it is better to spend 5% now than 30% during wartime," the official said.
Yu Zhongshun, a senior Chinese official, also said: "For us, the Ukrainian experience in protecting citizens is very interesting. He talks about equipping shelters, creating food supplies, and the ability to maintain a stable Internet connection.
Information warfare
Political scientist Lai Yijun, president of The Prospect Foundation – A think tank close to Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party told DW: "One of the main conclusions that Xi Jinping has apparently drawn from Russia's war against Ukraine is this: break the enemy's will and the rest will be easy. That is why the regime in Beijing is actively learning from Russia methods of disinformation and information operations under a foreign flag."
According to the Taipei Institute for Democracy, Society and New Technologies, after the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Chinese cyber forces flooded Taiwanese networks with Russian propaganda publications translated from Russian. This content is intended to convince Taiwanese that the US administration is ready to "surrender" their country to the regime in Beijing.
Cyber espionage and infiltration of military command and state bureaucracy are another front in China's war against Taiwan. In April of this year, Chinese agents posing as reporters were discovered who began electronic correspondence with Taiwanese officials and politicians. The fake journalists tried to extort personal data from them and spread malicious software. Xi's agents were betrayed by their poor English and the use of artificial intelligence to create unrealistic letters.
What should be the message to Xi?
An employee at the government-run Institute for National Defense and Security Studies in Taiwan, who requested anonymity, told DW that Xi Jinping is observing Putin's problems in Ukraine and understands that if he is going to attack Taiwan, it should only be done with 100% certainty of victory. Any other option would catastrophically weaken Xi's political position in China.
And for Taiwan, the conclusion is this: Beijing must be actively demonstrated that there will be no quick triumph. Only in this way can Taiwan remain safe.