Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have signed a historic pact for mutual defense. The "Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement" between the three Muslim countries aims to increase their cooperation against the backdrop of regional insecurity and threats of war in Iran. It is named after the city of Mecca, where it was signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Observers are comparing it to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after the Pakistani Foreign Ministry explained that an attack on one of the countries would be perceived as an attack on all. But experts warn that the agreement is unlikely to work exactly like NATO - at least not at first. Yemeni Houthi rebels have already attacked Saudi Arabia since the pact was signed, but neither Turkey nor Pakistan have come to the kingdom's aid.
"Flexible" defense agreement
This pact was created with the idea of having more of a deterrent function and being "flexible", says Dania Tafer, an expert at the American International Forum for the Persian Gulf. "In this pact, we have Saudi Arabia, which is at the center of the conflict with Iran. We also have Turkey and Pakistan, which maintain relations with both Iran and the United States," Tafer commented.
The new pact is likely to work in different stages, and the short-term goal is "stabilizing the region," says Kamran Bokhari, a senior fellow at the Council on Near East Policy in Washington. The long-term goals will be defense cooperation, not direct conflict, other experts say. "The three countries complement each other unusually well," says Andreas Krieg, a professor at King's College London. Saudi Arabia has oil wealth but insufficient defense technology and has relied heavily on the United States. At the same time, Turkey and Pakistan need investment, but they have very strong armies, and Turkey has a well-developed defense sector, Krieg explains. Pakistan is the only nuclear power of the three.
Who is the Mecca pact aimed at?
Turkish officials told Reuters that the pact is open to other neighboring countries that would like to join the joint defense. Egypt is expected to join, but it needs to consider how this will affect its relations with other allies such as the United Arab Emirates. Relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia are strained.
Turkey also assures that the new pact does not cancel previous bilateral and other cooperation agreements, nor is it aimed at any specific country. However, this pact is definitely understood as an attempt to deter two specific countries - Iran and Israel. The director of the Qatari Middle East Council for Global Affairs, Khalid Al Jaber, believes that this is an attempt to "prevent hegemony". According to him, the weakening of US influence could put the region in a situation in which two main players set the rules - Iran and Israel. "The Mecca Pact can best be described as an early attempt to build a third column - a bloc that does not want to conflict with any of these countries, but is strong enough to deter any of them from establishing a monopoly over the region," Al-Jaber added.
A serious challenge for Israel
Two of the countries in the pact - Saudi Arabia and Pakistan - do not recognize the state of Israel and have no official relations with it, although Saudi Arabia maintains one behind the scenes. Turkey recognizes Israel, but relations between the two countries are currently strained by the war in Gaza, which Ankara describes as genocide. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last week that Israel's actions in Lebanon and Syria pose a threat to Turkey's national security.
"The creation of the Mecca pact poses a serious challenge for Israel and further distances the possibility of normalizing relations with Riyadh, as well as hindering the vision of a "new Middle East", commented Oshrit Birvadker, a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. According to her, the new agreement will deepen the confrontation between Turkey and Israel.
How did Iran react?
The Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, Abbas Araghchi, does not seem worried about the agreement. On his profile on the social network X, he wrote that "when Muslims are united, we can bravely meet any challenge from hostile external forces".
According to observers, this is a positive sign and part of Iran's ongoing efforts to limit US influence on regional security. Some Iranian experts believe that the Saudis may take advantage of the good relations that Turkey and Pakistan maintain with Iran to protect themselves from potential attacks from Tehran. However, other Iranian politicians are more critical and believe that Saudi Arabia poses a threat even in a coalition with Turkey and Pakistan, as indicated by the review by the Institute for Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Author: Catherine Scheer