Eight months after the “good forces“ swore that they would nominate their candidates for president and vice president in the most democratic way (with internal elections or through something even more democratic), we have something like zero.
The democratic forum, consisting of democratic (sole) individuals, as could be completely democratically assumed, did not cope with this simple task at all, and the only meaningful candidacy somehow does not want to be democratically nominated along party lines.
And this is understandable. First - Gyurov has eaten their poppara. Second - probably the party nomination is closing (within the framework of the available 10-15%) support for the candidate of the “good forces“. Thirdly – Gyurov's position as acting prime minister and the successful “TikTok“ type of imposing his image give him (probably) more votes than those of the community itself, which proudly calls itself democratic.
Is the delay a problem?
Well, no, not at all.
This community votes according to a given sign, is even ready to shorten its stay in Mykonos by 6 hours and through its fairly well-established social channels manages to “send“ its messages very quickly.
So the “democratic“ votes are tied to Gyurov in a towel, and whether they will be enough for him to reach more than under the pear, I cannot say. I know.
Because I don't know what GERB will do, which with its vote can certainly give (in the first or second round) additional strength to Gyur's candidacy. And to further ruin itself.
Tons of words have been said about how much the “democratic community“ has lost from the assembly, which was basically a coalition, but since the Lenchs don't call something an assembly, then it is an assembly and that's it.
Not enough ink has been written about how much GERB has lost from its impure (in the political sense) assembly with PP–DB.
In my humble opinion, if it didn't lose automatically, it at least made more than half of its voters inclined to leave it, which they did (for various reasons and considerations) in the elections this year.
The ruling party, for its part, quickly dealt with the announcement of support for the current president, which was more than logical,
and now, at an accelerated pace, it has set about doing what none of the “new“ parties in recent years have been able to do – dig into the ground, establish themselves on the ground, create so-called structures.
Not that structures have any particular importance in leading parties (and that is the case with others), but certainly local party communities give additional strength to the party, and when it is in power (unanimously), conformist sentiments lead to a large influx of people.
So the progressives are doomed to succeed in this endeavor – building structures – because they do it at the right moment (which all the others missed, namely when they are at the top of power), because they do it with money and opportunities, and because to a large extent, the creation of structures represents – joining their cause“ “foreign ready-made personnel“.
So, whatever happens to the country's government next year, and it seems that nothing special will happen, the PB will welcome the year of local elections with its own stably built structures.
And then we will see what the political map of Bulgaria actually is. Because a year and a half of government will have passed and if the people's assessment will already be sober, probably a large part of the support will have decreased. People's knowledge about the competence of the authorities will have increased (may the Foreign Minister be alive and well, because she is a benchmark, and so will the entire ladies' company in the Council of Ministers, but a separate treatise should be written on that). In short, then the people will already be sober and devoid of illusions.
Of course, some facts are starting to sink into the consciousness of the population, which, even though it is August, cannot help but ask various questions, such as: well, where are the reforms, oh, how did these people amass this wealth from property deals /the Interior Minister's deals can serve as both an investment textbook and a guide for investigations/, oh, who the hell keeps half a million euros in cash at home. But also various others, more important and numerous - but the most important of them is: oh, what has made me feel better, except that the political chatter has calmed down. Questions will fill the agenda.
In a little while, nonsense like "a basket of care" will no longer only cause laughter, but also anger.
And then the local elections will provide an answer to the important question. Will Radev get all the power, or will he stumble over his own intentions.
Here we can also see Borisov's new goal.
GERB does not seem to be exactly an opposition, but rather a political force that is “changing its clothes“.
In place of the old and sometimes quite outdated in the political sense of the word cadres, new professionals are rising.
In place of discredited or downright openly accused of corruption cadres, Borisov is raising “the new GERB“ - those who have stayed away from the government, without “skeletons in the closet“. In general, the new generation, which (as Borisov does not fail to announce, supported by the old cadres) will fight in the local elections.
And by then, a lot of water will have flowed.
It is a completely different question how Borisov intends to spend this year and a half, except in a campaign for the local elections, which he has already started.
His idea is good that every future mayoral candidate should gain national fame and name even before the elections. In general, this tactic of Borisov, different from his typical one, namely to hide the name of his candidate until the last moment, can bring dividends for his party in a long campaign.
But the silence about the presidential elections (yes, yes, I know, it is not easy to position yourself in them now), the practical absence of opposition behavior, one that would shape public opinion, and so on – all this does not work in GERB's favor at all.
In general, a difficult period, but there are structures, new personnel and some perspective to declare itself as an alternative, which so far no one else has been able to do.
DPS and “Vazrazhdane“ are struggling to preserve and expand theirs, which in conditions of total sole power is not easy at all.
Kostadinov must fight Radev on “his own ground“, and Peevski would be better off “leaning back“ and waiting for the positives from the campaign of the good forces waged against him.
Because “Glovo“ received such strong support among the population after Mirchev's attacks that it would not be incredible if the daily literary forms through which the leaders of the good forces continue to “fight“ against Peevski lead to an expansion of support for Peevski himself.
And he, Peevski, will have a say in the second round of the presidential elections. A word that may turn out to be of quite important importance.
The same applies to Kostadinov.
And for now, the question is who is the second political force in the country, who will declare himself and show himself as a real alternative to the current government.
Because in December last year, some political forces raised the banner of revolution, while completely others “relished“ with the victory.
This is already history, but stories, especially in history, are very important.
Who will be second in the presidential elections and will be able to argue in the run-off is not only important, it is simply indicative of “what after Radev“, because the suffering Motherland will not end with Radev, ya!