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Ivan Krastev: Will the minimum wage increase at all in Bulgaria?

The debate on the method of determining the minimum wage is important, because at the moment it is practically the only working mechanism for implementing income policy by the state

Aug 27, 2026 13:00 43

Ivan Krastev: Will the minimum wage increase at all in Bulgaria? - 1
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The debate on the method of determining the minimum wage is important, because at the moment it is practically the only working mechanism for implementing income policy by the state. Approximately half a million people (or over 20% of the employed) work for the minimum wage. In the context of data on the size of the shadow economy in the country – according to some sources around and over 30% of GDP, the minimum wage is also a key indicator for the expected amount of revenue from taxes and social security contributions. Next, it should be noted that the minimum wage is linked to a number of social payments, salaries of personal assistants, etc.

This is recalled on "Facebook" Ivan Krastev.

The achievement of an agreement between employers, unions and the state on the mechanism for determining the minimum wage is commendable, although it is far from the currently guaranteed increase of up to 50% of the average wage, and one of the four indicators measuring labor productivity will be updated once every 10 years and will actually artificially hold back the growth of wages for this period. From now on, it is entirely within the government's power to decide how it will implement this mechanism - in the interests of workers, by applying the maximum possible increase, or on the contrary, as intentions are evident in the three-year budget forecast.

It is precisely because of the uncertainties about how the new mechanism will be implemented that the criteria for its evaluation are also important. Currently, there are two: 60% of the gross median wage; 60% of the cost of living. According to the directive, for example, 50% of the average gross wage and 60% of the gross median wage can be used as adequacy criteria, both cumulatively and separately. Including the median wage as a reference value is entirely to the detriment of workers, which is easily proven. - The median wage in Bulgaria is approximately 945 euros, and 60% of it is 567 euros. - The average wage for the second quarter is 1,444 euros, with half of it being 722 euros. euro.

- The difference between the two is 155 euros, which is roughly equivalent to the household bills during the heating season.

What we know for sure is that the MRP will grow less than we have been used to in recent years and will continue to be the lowest not only in the EU, but almost in all of Europe.

The real question is, will it grow at all?