Russia is systematically terrorizing the people of Ukraine with drones and missiles, there are almost daily casualties. At the same time, it is increasingly effectively destroying the economy of the neighboring country. Observers are sounding the alarm: many companies are threatened with serious losses.
ARD quotes economist Andriy Dlikhach, who points to dramatic data. His analysis shows that in the next 12 months, every company in Ukraine has a 20 percent chance of being hit by a military strike. “We rely on information about how many ballistic missiles Russia produces, as well as the fact that we cannot always intercept them.”
So far, only the “Patriot” system has been effective
The Ukrainian military intelligence GRU believes that Russia produces at least 60 ballistic missiles per month. But Ukraine is currently largely defenseless against them. As early as July, according to its own data, it managed to intercept only one in seven ballistic missiles, the German public media notes. But in the meantime, the army has stopped publishing such statistics. Observers believe that this is done so that the scale of the helplessness does not become clear.
The situation is worrying, because in Ukraine so far only the American “Patriot” systems have been effective enough to intercept Russian missiles. And this year Kiev does not have the opportunity to buy a sufficient amount, ARD points out.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, by the end of the year their total number will reach 264, including the less effective RAS-2 variant. Last year, there were 364 Patriot missiles, the German public media writes. Earlier this week, at a meeting of the so-called "Coalition of the Willing", Ukraine received new promises, but only for "a few new missiles", as Zelensky pointed out.
Zero growth or even decline
Economist Dlihach notes that Ukraine has already felt the lack of missiles. This year, large-scale Russian weapons have already caused twice as much damage to the economy as in all four years of war before. And that's without taking into account the damage caused by the fighting near the front - almost all enterprises there have been largely destroyed.
Other observers also believe that the situation is dramatic. The British "Economist" came out with the headline "Russian strikes inflict major damage on Ukrainian economy". Experts are adjusting their economic forecasts for Ukraine downwards. The government is now talking about only 1.4 percent growth, and experts believe that it is more likely that growth will be zero or even decline.
Direct attacks on ships
Russia is deliberately attacking key industries in Ukraine - including steel production. In August, Russian missiles struck blast furnaces in Zaporozhye and Krivoy Rog, according to media reports.
However, the attacks in the Black Sea that began in July are particularly painful, says economist Olena Bilan, quoted by ARD. Russia has long regularly attacked port infrastructure, but direct attacks on ships are new. That is why almost no ships have been docking in the ports around Odessa recently, Bilan points out.
"This will seriously affect the economy," the expert emphasizes. Since 90 percent of agricultural exports, 60 percent of steel exports and half of ore exports pass through the Black Sea ports. And shipments can only be partially redirected, Bilan explains.
Experts call for state intervention
Agriculture is most at risk of a catastrophe, ARD writes. It is believed that Ukraine would like to export more than 50 million tons of grain this year. Some of it could be stored, but Russia is also attacking the silos, says economist Dlihac. According to him, the state should now at least do what is possible - for example, stimulate favorable loans for companies.
With its help, they could resume production and logistics in the western parts of the country, divide them into smaller units or even move them underground. Ukrainian entrepreneurs have proven that they can cope with extreme situations, but they are already exhausted by the war, Dlihac points out to ARD.
Author: Florian Kellermann ARD