On November 5, Americans will go to the polls to choose their next president. The race will seem familiar: the two main candidates are the same as in 2020, according to an analysis by the authoritative British magazine "The Economist", which puts the average approval ratings of 46% for Trump and 45% as of May 26, 2024 for Biden.
Incumbent Joe Biden faced no real competition for the Democratic nomination. His predecessor in office, Donald Trump, easily handled the crowded field in the Republican primaries. This will be the first rematch of a presidential election in the US in almost 70 years, the magazine commented.
After Trump lost the previous election, his supporters tried to overturn the result. He is facing federal charges for his alleged involvement in the scheme, as well as three other criminal cases. His first criminal trial began in April, according to the magazine "Economist".
Biden's presidency has been defined by high inflation, large bills due to his industrial policy and conflicts abroad - Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Middle East.
Both men are unpopular, the magazine notes. The election will be less of a popularity contest than a referendum on which of the two candidates Americans think is the less bad option.
Key dates
There are still many months left until the elections, but after the two candidates have already been determined, the campaign can begin in earnest, commented the magazine "Economist":
July 15
Republican National Convention
Typically, it's a four-day pageant for the party's nominee, who will officially choose the Republican presidential and vice presidential nominees in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
August 19
Democratic National Convention
Like the Republican convention a month earlier, Democrats will officially nominate Biden as their presidential candidate in Chicago, Illinois.
September 16
First Presidential Debate
The two main candidates are expected to meet in three such debates in the coming month, each time discussing important issues (or at least exchanging insults) for 90 minutes. Their vice presidential candidates will also participate in a debate once.
November 5
Election Day
Polls open on Tuesdays in early November, although thanks to early voting and vote-by-mail initiatives, many Americans will have already voted. In some states, ballot counting will continue for weeks.
January 6, 2025
Authentication of results
After all the votes are counted, the results must be certified by the US Congress. Usually considered a formal event, in 2021 Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building to stop the results from being certified. He is on trial for his alleged role in the attack.
January 20, 2025
Inauguration Ceremony
The new (well, the newly elected) president will be sworn in for another term on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, D.C., the magazine concludes.
The candidates (according to the short biographies of the magazine "Economist"):
Joe Biden
President
Joe Biden, at 81, will be the oldest major-party presidential candidate, breaking his own record set in 2020 by himself. Biden won a Senate seat at age 30 and held it for more than three decades. He ran unsuccessfully for president in 1988 and 2008 and served as Barack Obama's vice president. Despite his reputation as a Democratic centrist, while in office he sought to expand government and lobbied in favor of labor unions. He also headed the international coalition in support of Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Although he promises to "get the job done" if re-elected, many voters feel the job could be wearing him down.
Donald Trump
Former President
Donald Trump's extraordinary campaign follows his equally remarkable tenure as the 45th president of the United States, which ended shortly after his supporters staged an armed assault on the Capitol. His alleged role in instigating the attack and the subsequent attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election resulted in two criminal charges, in federal court and in Georgia state court. Two more have been charged against him, bringing the total number of serious crimes to 91. Seventy-seven-year-old Trump denies any wrongdoing. Trump is a self-proclaimed billionaire who made (and lost) much of his money in real estate before becoming a TV star. This time, his campaign combines familiar issues from the culture war (building a border wall, "leftist gender madness") with new grievances (against the lawyers who prosecute his cases and the judges who hear them).
Under the heading "Loser:" With new arsenal of taunts, Biden tries to annoy Trump" the American in. "USA Today" it dwells on insults as a kind of tactic in the election campaign, which have become a tradition in US politics.
During a visit to the restaurant "Mary Mack" in Atlanta earlier this month, President Joe Biden sought to downplay polls suggesting he could lose re-election, reminding a room full of his supporters that the race isn't just about him, "it's also for the alternative", notes the newspaper.
Then he got to his favorite five-letter word that starts with "L" (translated from English "Loser" means "'a person who loses constantly, incompetent, unable to succeed, loser"), this time adding a new nuance to hit former President Donald Trump .
"My opponent is not a good loser. But he's a loser,'' Biden said, sparking laughter and applause from the friendly audience.
In the race against the ultimate duelist and bully, Biden has increasingly turned to his own arsenal of insults, one-syllables and quips to caricature Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, notes the "U.S. Today".
The scoring reflects a pushback strategy aimed at riling Trump by reminding voters of some of the former president's personal and professional foibles.
"Loser" - the reference to the 2020 election, which Trump lost to Biden but whose result he refused to accept - has become Biden's new favorite insult for Trump, the newspaper commented.
Biden began regularly recounting how Trump, in his capacity as president, suggested that Americans inject themselves with bleach to treat COVID-19. "Just inject yourself with bleach," Biden said at a rally with voters in Detroit. "I think that's what he did. That's why it's so ridiculous," he added.
Another time, Biden joked that Trump "dropped" the bleach and "everything went into his hair".
The taunts are intended to provoke a reaction from Trump and show that Biden can stand up to the former president, notes USA Today.
Still, in a race where Trump continues to take most of the oxygen in the air, especially as the media remains fixated on the drama of his trial, it's unclear whether President Biden's attacks are having much of an effect. It's also debatable whether Biden, who has built his trademark politics on notions of empathy and decency, is the right vehicle for these jokes.
"The problem is, in some ways, Joe Biden is too nice a guy to do this," said Drew Weston, a professor of psychology and psychiatry at Emory University. in Atlanta, who advises Democrats on their messaging. "People might laugh at it for a moment, but it doesn't have the same effect as when Trump uses these low-back jabs,'' he added.
Biden jokes about Trump's bibles, debts and stocks on the social platform "Truth Social"
Biden will have the opportunity to use some of his material, if he chooses, directly on Trump during the first of two CNN debates with him on June 27.
At times in his recent speeches and other public statements, Biden has sounded like a late-night comedian, commented in "USA Today".
One of Biden's jokes about the former president included an account of meeting a "lost-looking man," who told the president he was "crushed with debt,", the paper said.
"I had to tell him, "I'm sorry, Donald, I can't help you,'' Biden said at the same Seattle fundraiser, among other recent remarks, joking about Trump's mounting legal obligations because of civil court decisions and court fees.
Biden mocked the "Bible God Bless the USA" of Trump, which the former president is selling for $59.99.
"He called the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson (overturning Roe v. Wade - ed.) a ``miracle,'' Biden said last month in Tampa, Florida."Maybe it comes from that bible he is trying to sell. "I almost wanted to buy one just to see what the hell it says," the US president added.
And mocked the financial difficulties of Trump's social platform "Truth Social".
"If Trump's shares in his company "Truth Social" fall even lower, he can do better with my tax assessments than his,'' Biden said last month in a speech in Scranton, Pennsylvania.
Weston, who is the author of the book "The Political Brain: The Role of Emotions in Deciding the Fate of the Nation", said that Trump usually does not respond to attacks against him except with "shame and embarrassment.
"He does it to everyone else, but they don't give it back to him. "It seems like the goal is to irritate him, to make him angry, and to activate that shame dynamic," Weston said.
Insults are a tradition in US politics
Trump campaign spokesman Stephen Chung responded to Biden's jokes in a statement to USA Today, saying, "Rogue Joe and his failed campaign have no idea what's going to happen to them.
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Chung added that "in addition to trying to explain his memory loss" and "crossing your legs as if short-circuiting the "Rumba" (a brand of automatic robotic vacuum cleaner - ed.), the Biden campaign will have to "take responsibility for its out-of-control borders, runaway inflation and rising crime rates that hurt every American.
Of course, insults and screams in American politics are not new, the newspaper notes. In the early days of the republic, insulting a political opponent was a common practice.
Former President John Adams loathed former Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton and repeatedly called him a "insolent brat" in letters.
According to William Byck, a historian of political development and author of a guide to political campaigns, in the 19th century American presidents left insults to their political opponents to the newspapers or to their subordinates.
A newspaper publisher called Lewis Cass, the Democratic presidential candidate in 1848, a man "with a paunch, a sheep's head, and cucumber soles." In 1855, a congressman called President Franklin Pierce a "pimp." In 1868, newspapers called Republican presidential candidate Ulysses S. Grant "a drunkard", "a man of vile habits"; and "a bum" , and Grant is a war hero. In 1884, another newspaper called Democratic presidential candidate Grover Cleveland a "moral leper".
As the U.S. became an international power in the late 19th century, however, policymakers began to see themselves more as international statesmen and softened the rhetoric for much of the 20th century, Baik said.
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According to him, they still insult each other, but they are smarter about it. "To be wrong is like being Truman," read one of the attacks on President Harry Truman, recalled in "USA Today".
The rhetoric of presidential campaigns took on a sinister tone again with the advent of the Reagan era in 1980, Baik added. Although considered a more moderate politician, President George W. Bush, who was Ronald Reagan's vice president, turned the word "liberal" in insult, applying that label to his Democratic opponent Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Any semblance of political restraint disappeared in 2016, when Trump derided his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton as "crooked Hillary", as "the devil" and fired up his supporters with chants of "lock her up". Clinton was a little more reserved, but not by much. She called Trump "unfit for office" and his supporters a "basket of wretches.
In Baik's words, it is clear that Biden is trying to turn the game in his favor against the hypersensitive Trump and push him to fight back.
"Trump has been on a barrage of insults since the 2020 campaign and throughout Biden's presidency, calling him "Rogue Joe,", "the worst debater,", "the most -the worst president in US history so far" etc.", Baik said. "But Trump himself is generally easily vulnerable when it comes to insults, so Biden has recently been trying to irritate Trump by throwing his own insults at the former president," he added.
So far, Biden's approach has done little to change the dynamics of the 2024 election, with most polls showing Biden trailing Trump in key states and nationally, according to USA Today. .
But Baik argues that Biden's strategy has a dual purpose -- it shows that Democrats aren't afraid to stand up to Republicans, and he hopes to provoke Trump into saying something so outlandish that it hurts his campaign.
"If insulting Trump achieves some of these results, it is a good strategy for the Democrats," Baik said, as quoted by the American newspaper.
The latest polls show Trump gaining ground among blacks and Latinos, which were crucial to Biden's victory in 2020, Reuters notes. Trump's strategists see a chance that he will be able to attract enough of their votes to close the gap in swing states in November.
In a joint poll of the "New York Times" and the University "Siena" in New York state in March, Trump was favored by 23% of black and 46% of Hispanic voters in a head-to-head matchup with Biden. This is much more than the 12% of black and 32% of Hispanic voters that Trump won in 2020 according to exit polls by the polling agency "Edison Research".
Political analysts attribute the waning support for Biden among voters of color in part to the huge impact of inflation on people living paycheck to paycheck.
Attending his first Trump rally last Thursday, Ed Rossa, 60, said he is a longtime Democratic voter but believes his vote for Biden in 2020 was a mistake. He stated that the Democratic Party had "become too socialist" and does not deal well with the economy or the situation on the US southern border, Reuters concludes.
translation: BTA