The cabinets proposed so far by Borisov with bright party political figures did not succeed. And the local authority of GERB is the last reserve that Borisov can throw into battle. But his idea – mayors for ministers – it also carries risks.
The leader of GERB, Boyko Borisov, announced that the leadership of GERB will consider the idea of leading its mayors to head parliamentary lists and, if the party wins the elections again, that they become not deputies, but ministers. The motive is clear: “People should know that we will bring in our most powerful forces”, explained Borisov.
The successful mayors of GERB as a combat reserve for votes
Although it is the first political force, GERB is also losing votes and still cannot form a government. And the local government, which is the basis of GERB's sustainability, is the last reserve that Borisov can throw into battle. Once, to raise voter turnout in constituencies with successful GERB mayors, who now lead parliamentary lists. And a second time, to give voters a clearer idea of what kind of government he is proposing.
Because the voters, who are called for the seventh time in the last three years for a parliamentary election, must be motivated to go to the polls with some hope that this time they will get a regular government – and even if it is only a possibility, it should at least be shaded. Therefore, after PP-DB raises the idea of a politically independent prime minister, economist or lawyer, GERB responds with the idea of mayors for ministers.
Based on the results of the last parliamentary and local elections, we can make a reasonable assumption that in the regions with the most successful mayors, GERB can draw electoral reserves for the parliamentary vote on October 27. No matter how conditional the comparison between local and parliamentary elections is, in the data on party support for people's representatives and for municipal councilors, there is commensurability, and with the majority vote, we traditionally talk about an electoral reservoir, when popular personalities can pull up the party list.
Four illustrative examples
This is what the data say about the constituencies of four of the most successful mayors of GERB. In the municipalities of Burgas region, in the local elections on October 29, 2023, GERB won 36,400 votes in the proportional vote (for municipal councilors). In the parliamentary elections on June 9, 2024 in the Burgas region, the party of Boyko Borisov received 26,800 votes, or with ¼ less. At the same time, the veteran mayor of Burgas municipality Dimitar Nikolov won twice as many votes from the party's municipal list.
At the local elections in Stara Zagora municipalities, GERB won 24,500 votes. Eight months later, at the parliamentary vote in the Stara Zagora constituency, the party had 3,000 fewer voters. Here the decline is not drastic – around 12%, but again has strong majoritarian growth potential. Because Zhivko Todorov became mayor for the fourth time with a result as much as 2.8 times higher than that of the list of GERB councilors.
In the local elections in the municipalities of Vratsa, GERB has 23,300 votes. In the parliamentary vote, the party won 17,200 votes in the Vratsa region. I.e. the proportional vote is again by ¼ smaller. But the mayor of Vratsa, Kalin Kamenov, won his third term with twice as many votes as the GERB lists for municipal councilors.
In the local elections in the Gabrovo municipalities, GERB has 9,400 votes, and in the parliamentary elections - 8,800, i.e. the decline is only 7 percent. But here too there is a majoritarian potential, because the fourth-term mayor Tanya Hristova has in the municipality of Gabrovo in the first round a support of 50% over the municipal list of GERB (she was the only one of the four listed to win in the second round, but with a decisive result).
People may not give themselves a mayor and punish the party
Of course, the majoritarian potential of these and other GERB mayors cannot be extrapolated directly to the upcoming parliamentary vote. Many factors influence the motivation of voters, and it is far from certain that they would part with their repeatedly elected mayor to send him a minister.
It would seem extravagant for such a mayor to be appointed as the leader of the list in another city. It is most likely that moods will be tested in places, and if the people categorically do not give their mayor, he will try to raise the turnout by symbolically heading the party list, but with the firm promise that he will not abandon the municipality for any other post - otherwise GERB risks collecting a penalty vote.
What local authorities can do
The more likely function of the idea of successful mayors eventually becoming ministers is to provide a request for another type of party commitment to governance, because the cabinets proposed so far by Borisov with bright party political figures have failed. A GERB mayor, who won elections with far more party support, unites many more people behind him – he is not non-partisan, but he is beyond partisan.
Also, the request is that this is a person who has proven to be able to solve real problems and is close to people's concerns. At a time when national politicians have wretched ratings, local authorities could at least partially compensate for the deficit of democratic legitimacy of the central government.
However, the idea of mayors-ministers is only a sketch towards a possible future government, not a complete formula for power after October 27. There might not be one now, but the more contours voters are offered for it, the more engaged the collective political imagination will be, which would increase voter turnout. This is also a way of rapprochement between the parties, who have realized that this time some - any - construction of a regular government is absolutely mandatory.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DV as a whole.