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Why did Lula turn his back on Nicolás Maduro?

All these factors indicate that Brazil's changing position towards Venezuela is more than rhetoric - it represents a strategic reorientation dictated by urgent domestic and international processes

Oct 30, 2024 16:16 255

Why did Lula turn his back on Nicolás Maduro?  - 1
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Brazil has vetoed Venezuela's accession to BRICS at the summit in the Russian city of Kazan last week. This was another step in the deterioration of relations between the two countries.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was unable to attend the meeting after suffering domestic trauma days earlier, but in a 20-minute telephone conversation with the host – Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed his intention not to admit his neighbor to membership, reported the Spanish newspaper “Pais”.

Brazil explained that it vetoed Venezuela's bid to join BRICS because President Nicolas Maduro abused Lula's trust after the presidential election in late July when he failed to keep his promise to provide evidence of the official results of vote, explained Celso Amorim, chief adviser to the president of Brazil on international affairs and former foreign minister of the country.

„The problem with Venezuela has nothing to do with democracy, but with broken trust. The breach of trust was serious. They promised us something, but it was not fulfilled, he told the Brazilian newspaper Globo, as quoted by Pais.

The Venezuelan government criticized Brazil's veto. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Caracas described the move as “immoral aggression”, the BBC reported.

„The Brazilian Foreign Ministry has decided to maintain the veto that (former Brazilian President) Jair Bolsonaro has applied against Venezuela for years, replicating the hatred, exclusion and intolerance promoted by the power centers of the West,” said in a statement the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “The Venezuelan people are outraged and ashamed of this inexplicable and immoral aggression,”, it added.

A few days later, Maduro himself said that his country would not be silenced. “No one will block or silence Venezuela, not today, not tomorrow, not ever”, the Venezuelan president emphasized without mentioning Brazil, quoted by France Presse.

Brazilian President Lula da Silva was until recently a staunch ally of Maduro. His country had previously severed diplomatic relations with the government in Caracas under President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022), joining the US and around 50 other countries. They recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela's interim president after the 2018 election, and the vote was declared rigged.

After taking office in January 2023, Lula restored relations with Maduro's government, part of an overhaul of Brazil's foreign policy under Bolsonaro. At the end of May last year, the Brazilian president received his Venezuelan counterpart and promised a new era in relations between the two countries.

Shunned by many countries because of alleged human rights abuses by his socialist government, Maduro was greeted by a guard of honor at Brazil's presidential palace, where veteran leftist Lula greeted him with a hug and a pat on the back, French newspaper Mond said at the time. ;.

The understanding between the two did not last long. Their relations became strained after the elections of July 28 this year and the contested re-election of Maduro, France Press recalls.

In the summer, Lula sent his advisor Amorim to Caracas to observe the presidential election on the ground. The next day, the Brazilian envoy went to the Miraflores Palace to meet with Maduro, who, according to Globo, has promised to present the documents refuting the opposition's accusations of electoral fraud.

Publicly released by the opposition, more than 80% of the vote count reports indicated a landslide victory for its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez. For weeks, Brazil - along with Colombia, Mexico and the United States - demanded the documentation from Maduro, but never received it, recalls “Pais”.

Two weeks after the elections, in an interview with radio “Gaucha“ the Brazilian leftist leader made it clear that his patience was running out and made some of his most disapproving comments about the government in Caracas. “I think Venezuela is living under a very unpleasant regime,” Lula said, adding that he still does not consider Maduro's rule a dictatorship. “This is different from a dictatorship - it is a government with an authoritarian bent, but it is not a dictatorship as we know so many around the world,” said Brazil's president.

What explains this change in tone?

Lula, now 78, previously served two terms as president, and since his return to office last year is again trying to establish himself as a leader in the region. A shrewd pragmatist, he is trying to maintain good relations with US adversaries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, while maintaining the credibility of the Joe Biden administration after defeating Donald Trump crony Jair Bolsonaro, commented “ New Yorker“.

Lula's current position on Venezuela has been carefully rethought, and his practical considerations are slowly overshadowing the old ideology, commented “Foreign Polisi”.

According to the publication, several factors influenced the reorientation of the Brazilian president. First of all, the mass demonstrations against the Venezuelan president, which in the summer attracted a large number of working-class citizens - the same people who were once the backbone of support for his Bolivarian regime, have a significant role to play in this, writes “Foreign Polis“ and notes that continued support for Maduro under these circumstances would risk Brazil joining a regime that is increasingly seen as illegitimate and unwanted by both its own people and the international community.

Another important factor influencing Brazil's policy change is the growing influence of the Venezuelan diaspora in South America. Over the past decade, more than eight million Venezuelans have left their country, many of them moving to Brazil and other Latin American countries. These migrants are a reminder of the humanitarian and economic crisis caused by the Maduro regime, and their presence in Brazil, while still relatively small, is putting increasing pressure on Lula.

Domestically, Brazilian public opinion has also turned decisively against the Venezuelan president's regime, notes “Foreign Policies”. This change is particularly noticeable among some traditional leftist circles in Brazil, which in the past sympathized with socialist governments in Latin America, but their support for Maduro now increasingly looks like a fast track to political isolation both at home and abroad.

In addition to domestic pressures, Venezuela's growing international isolation makes remaining Maduro's country less attractive to Brazil, the publication commented.

Economic factors also play a crucial role in Brazil's changing position vis-à-vis its neighbor. Venezuela's economic decline, once seen as a temporary setback, is now considered irreversible under the current regime. For Brazil, this means that the economic benefits of maintaining close ties with Maduro are diminishing, while the potential benefits of engaging with a democratic and market-oriented Venezuela are becoming increasingly attractive.

All these factors show that Brazil's changing position towards Venezuela is more than rhetoric - it represents a strategic reorientation dictated by urgent domestic and international processes, notes “Foreign Polis“.

Maduro will be sworn in for a third term on January 10. Bilateral relations between the two countries are expected to remain frozen. For now, however, Lula rules out a complete termination of relations - this is not in his style, commented “Pais”.