German defense expert Carlo Massala believes that in a few years NATO member states could become Vladimir Putin's targets. He has written a powerful thriller that describes what could happen in the event of a massive attack by Russia. "Such a scenario would sign NATO's death warrant", writes the Belgian online publication 7sur7.be in its article.
March 2028. Russian troops capture Narva, a city with a population of nearly 54,000 people, located on Hiiumaa - an island belonging to NATO member Estonia. In several emergency online meetings, NATO partners have expressed growing concern about the new Russian occupation.
Despite these shared concerns, however, the alliance's largest countries cannot agree on how to respond. Is Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, really applicable in this situation? Will NATO troops arrive too late due to Russia's recent naval blockade? And is World War III now inevitable?
In his book "Wenn Russland gewinnt" ("If Russia Wins") the German expert describes a bleak scenario in which the US president decides to abandon Article 5, thereby removing the alliance's main deterrent against Russia.
Russia is challenging the Western world
57-year-old Carlo Massala, a professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, is perhaps the most sought-after specialist in his field in Germany. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, he has appeared regularly in the German media to speak on the subject.
For him, it is no longer possible to deny or underestimate the Russian threat. With a possible invasion of the Baltic states, Putin would endanger the entire Western way of life, Massala insists. This hundred-page book was released late last month and reads like a literary thriller.
That is precisely Masala's intention - unlike his academic articles, which are mainly aimed at his colleagues, this disturbing message is intended to reach the general public.
Submarine
After the capture of the Estonian city of Narva and the lack of reaction from NATO, the Russians decide to continue their offensive. The story takes us to a Russian submarine in the Baltic Sea, invisible to the rest of the world.
The captain orders three combat divers to swim to Hanseland, a small uninhabited island between Canada and Greenland, which is officially part of Denmark.
After the successful swim, the Russian divers plant the Russian flag, leave a bottle of vodka and some caviar. In this way, with a special sense of humor, the Kremlin is reviving an old quarrel between Canada and Denmark, known as the "whiskey war", explains Masala.
"A provocation can start so simply. But the very idea that nuclear submarines could secretly reach the Canadian coast already poses a serious threat to the security of the West," the author adds.
Large-scale war
The scenario described by Masala is completely realistic. Despite the weakened state of the Russian army, European intelligence services seriously believe that Russia could attack NATO in 2029 or 2030. Germany must be ready for confrontation by 2029, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already stated.
Masala explains: "Putin is pursuing a neo-imperialist goal. Its military economy, on which Russia is practically built, is operating at full capacity. Russia is preparing for a full-scale war."
He also refers to Russia's hybrid war against the West. This war includes cyberattacks on government buildings, the spread of Russian disinformation on social media to discredit democracies, alleged acts of sabotage in the Baltic Sea, and the regulation of migrant flows from Moscow and Minsk.
That is why he believes that NATO members should act in a more coordinated manner. "We need to demonstrate greater political unity. Another priority is a structural increase in defense spending. If you don't have tanks, you can't repel an attack. But above all, we must be clear: every square meter of NATO territory matters."
And what can we, citizens of the West, do? "People need to realize that Russia is attacking our way of life," concludes Masala.